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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (22911)	3/31/2002 8:45:54 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Respond to of 281500

Another good column from Barry Rubin of the Jerusalem Post: THE REGION: Going in circles By Barry Rubin (March 31) Experience molds leaders, who also - if they stay in power long enough - shape their people, and certainly their people's fate. So in discussing the current tragedy and how long it will continue requires evaluating the man who plays all the cards and makes all the decisions for the Palestinians. Yasser Arafat's success is based on his ability to learn some lessons of history very well. Here, his teachers are much to blame, as we will see in a moment. His tremendous failures derive largely from not being able to learn other lessons at all. What history has taught Arafat is that using a systematic strategy of terrorism does not inhibit diplomatic gains. It should be remembered, to cite one example among many, that Arafat was first invited to speak at the UN in the midst of a campaign of bloody, anti-civilian terrorism against Israel like the current one, and after several years of international atrocities by the PLO. Indeed, the world taught Arafat that terrorism works in getting attention, sympathy and support. What he did not learn: * Terrorism doesn't win political struggles. Terrorism has never defeated Israel, and has actually delayed the creation of a Palestinian state by 20 years or more. After well over 65 years of violent struggle and rejectionism, almost 55 years of Israel, and more than 35 years of the Arafat-led PLO, Palestinians have no state or security. This is a record of failure almost unparalleled in history. What history has taught Arafat is that extremism and a refusal to compromise can be used very effectively to maintain domestic support. The revolution can go on forever. His eagerness to lead his movement in the murder of Israelis has made Arafat very popular. No Palestinian talks about his regime's incompetence, corruption and lack of democracy or human rights. Could anything be more ironic than the fact that the Europeans were balking at giving Arafat money because of these shortcomings when he was negotiating with Israel? Now that he has destroyed the peace process and is engaging in massive terrorism, they are happy to keep his regime afloat with subsidies. * Extremism and a refusal to compromise block any material progress and ultimately - or perhaps, more accurately, periodically - destroys your international position. The revolution is supposed to have a purpose. That could be the constructive aim of getting your people a national homeland secured by law and bettering their lives; or it could be to make your people feel good by producing martyrs and getting revenge. If it is the latter, the revolution never succeeds, but continues in the same basic way as it did decades ago. WHAT HISTORY has taught Arafat: The merest pretext and boldest lie will persuade many important observers that you are innocent, or at least not guilty. In the 1970s Arafat disclaimed any connection with the Black September terrorist organization, and such disclaimers were accepted by governments, the media and experts. Today, he does the same thing regarding the ongoing terrorism. Can you imagine the ridicule any other leader would face if he claimed he had nothing to do with - and could not stop - the terrorist activities of his own bodyguards? Every time there has been a suicide bombing lately, Arafat has denounced it for the sake of Western governments and media, while his own people hear nothing about this and, on the contrary, hear these attacks cheered by the chairman and his controlled media. * What he didn't learn from history: Not to underestimate your opponent. Eventually the countries and people who matter most will catch on to your deceptions. They will then either oppose you, or at least do nothing to help you in an unwinnable battle. If you persuade Israeli public opinion that you are an irreconcilable enemy, you will get nothing. What history has taught Arafat: You are more of a hero to your people because of what you promise than because of what you actually deliver. Remember those people who used to claim that Arafat had to make progress or get a state soon, or he would lose power? Arafat knew he had a better alternative. * What he didn't learn: No matter how many gains you make on paper, none means anything unless it is implemented in practice. You can lead your people into marching in endless circles. What history has taught Arafat: The one thing the world can always forgive is someone who acts like the victim. * What he didn't learn: Self-inflicted victimhood has lots of disadvantages. What history has taught Arafat: Few people will really believe you aren't a pragmatist like everyone else. This is a tool you can use to manipulate them. * What he didn't learn: If you go too far and don't know where to stop, you end up with another miserable, costly defeat. What history has taught Arafat: Any miserable, costly defeat can be portrayed as a glorious victory. Your people and the Arabs in general will believe this myth, or will at least pretend to do so in public. * What he didn't learn: Some day even they might very well catch on to this scam. jpost.com