Hi, all -
Wolf, I think adversity brings out the writer in you.
You've encapsulated the various realities nicely.
"Nobody bought this stock for it's dividends or it's history.
You bought it because you think you might make bigger money
taking a higher risk on something you're willing to believe."
Exactly ~ "...on something you're willing to believe"
"If your money stays on the table until Pennsaid success
or failure is resolved (FDA - yes or no), what can you
be thinking if you give price meaning now? July/August
may be the time for that....A bit early to be wondering what's wrong in my mind.
Deranged as it is."
If you're deranged, then I'm certifiable. I don't see anything wrong. I really don't understand the complaints. I see no factual basis for them, and I see nothing wrong with the timelines.
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As investors, we have all "rolled the dice" - if not here, somewhere else.
Now here's the interesting thing; the attitude of the investor. He or she makes a play, and it turns out right.
Who's responsible? How many investors say, "Wow! Thanks to management, thanks to the company - they made my dreams come true."
That's not what one hears. What one hears is, "Hey, I made a good chunk of cash on that one!" The investor takes unto himself the credit for the decision.
Why then, should it be that when the play turns bad, the company then becomes the object of blame?
Perhaps I see it wrong, but, barring criminal behaviour on the part of the company, there is one person, and one person alone who can be blamed for a bad investment: the investor.
I see these boards as a vital tool in our fight for financial independence - in a market that is highly prejudiced against the retail investor.
On the basis of the facts, known facts presented by credible posters such as Mark, di7026, yourself, Joe, alessard, and many others - there is no reason for despondency.
The timeline is largely in the hands of others. Some things at DMX, some deals, will be triggered by outside events, beyond DMX's control.
And yes, luck may play a part: the Cosmic Joker, in the form of events like 9/11, may reappear.
We can only go on the evidence. The evidence is that we have a young pharma, that has an impressive list of accomplishments, thus far. Have they made mistakes? Yes. But that was to be expected in a young pharma. There is a great difference between "making a mistake" and "incompetence".
For reasons that we do not know, or cannot see - could this investment go wrong? Obviously, yes: that is the case with any investment.
On the basis of what we do know, and what we can see, there is no reason for anything but optimism.
Is there room for improvement? Of course. Information control stinks. Transparency doesn't exist. I think that many present failings of DMX will be resolved as revenues begin to flow, and as preparations for NASDAQ evolve.
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The market projections for Pennsaid look good. Conservative projections reveal a potential for $1/shr (or more) in revenue. Fact.
The likely partner for Pennsaid looks good (very good, with considerable marketing strength). Known indicators support the conclusion that signing J+J is a high-probability event. Fact.
The known indicators for FDA approval of Pennsaid look promising. The probability of approval is high. Fact.
There are no contrary indicators (that we know of) for WF10's PIII. No SAE's have caused PIII interruption and failure. Fact.
The available evidence for WF10 looks good, and is being confirmed in practice by a Canadian doctor. Fact.
An anticipated manufacturer for Pennsaid backed out, and left DMX high and dry. A plant was bought, equipped, staffed, and inspected without one Form 483. The plant will also have the ability to produce WF10. Fact.
Pennsaid is approved and being sold in the UK. Initial sales are slow. Fact.
Pennsaid will soon be sold in the Caribbean. Fact.
DMX owns its drugs outright, and can expect the returns that attend. Fact.
Pennsaid has run into regulatory delays in Europe, and marketing difficulties. There is still a reasonable expectation of Euro revenue. Fact.
Pennsaid has run into regulatory delays in Canada. The reasons are not known. There is evidence to support the conclusion that HC has reflected regulatory concerns on DMSO. There is evidence to support the conclusion that failings at HC are responsible. There is evidence to support the conclusion that if FDA approves Pennsaid, HC will, too. Fact.
DMX has run into a number of delays. On the basis of known evidence, most of these delays are attributable to regulatory difficulties, and not failings at DMX. Fact.
The timelines for drug development and approval are not out of line with industry norms. Fact.
Wolf, at this time, I view the price as irrelevant, in comparison to the facts.
My only hope is that it will hit $3.70-ish again, allowing me to buy more.
Last week, it bounced off $4 like a shot.
Best regards,
Jim |
