"...history may fail Democrats in their bid to retake the House."
If the Republicans can hold the House, Bush will have considerably more freedom to act on his beliefs. If they pick up a Senate seat, a few Supreme Court justices will probably consider retirement.
msnbc.com
House Democrats’ tough math
Redistricting, incumbency leave fewer seats up for grabs
By Juliet Eilperin
THE WASHINGTON POST
April 2 — Less than two years ago, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) squeaked into office by 111 votes, having had to wait weeks for confirmation that he had been elected. Despite his razor-thin victory, Rogers is a prohibitive favorite for reelection, with a local union’s endorsement and a safer district because the state’s redistricting process added thousands of Republican voters from a neighboring area.
EVEN ROGERS said he is “a little bit surprised” that no prominent Democrat has come forward to challenge him in November.
Rogers is not alone. Nearly half a dozen freshman Republican lawmakers, who might have expected vigorous Democratic challengers, appear poised to cruise to reelection now that redistricting is nearly complete following the 2000 Census.
The lack of strong challengers in these races highlights one of the main obstacles for Democrats as they try to pick up the six seats they need to take control of the House this fall: Incumbents are stronger almost everywhere, and as a result, a surprisingly small number of the 435 House contests are truly competitive.
A decade ago, there were roughly 100 competitive races following redistricting; this year there will be 30 to 40, perhaps even fewer, which means Democrats would have to win a dauntingly high percentage to achieve their goal.
“It’s like a Mount Everest for the Democrats,” said Amy Walter, who monitors congressional races for the Washington-based Cook Political Report. “The arithmetic suggests there are just not enough seats out there” for Democrats.
At the moment, House Republicans have the narrowest majority since 1953, having steadily lost seats since the watershed election of 1994 that ushered in former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) and the Republican revolution. Democrats nearly won the House back in 2000, falling short when a handful of GOP candidates managed to eke out victories.
Midterm elections traditionally benefit the party shut out of the White House, as voters tend to blame the president’s party for the chief executive’s mistakes and punish candidates who rode his coattails into office. And a slew of GOP incumbents are facing their toughest races in years, including Henry Bonilla (Tex.) and, more locally, Constance A. Morella (Md.).
REDISTRICTING’S MINIMAL IMPACT
Yet while it is certainly possible that Democrats will regain control of the House in November, many close observers of congressional politics consider it a long shot.
A main reason is that redistricting did not significantly alter the political landscape in a way that would benefit Democrats — though it could have been much worse for them. Republican predictions of an 8- to 10-seat gain evaporated as court decisions in Texas and other states blocked GOP redistricting plans that would have seriously injured Democrats.
But Democrats also passed up opportunities to put more Republican seats at risk. In California, for instance, Democratic state legislators chose to protect all but one GOP incumbent and created only one new Democratic seat rather than push for bold gains and risk a legal fight. In West Virginia, the two Democratic House incumbents’ unwillingness to shed loyal voters actually improved the reelection chances of freshman GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito.
Reapportionment has thrown some pairs of incumbents — one Republican and one Democrat — into the same district in Connecticut, Illinois, Mississippi and elsewhere. But Democrats cannot count on victories in all of these races because neither party has a clear advantage.
Another problem for the Democrats, analysts say, is the lack of a compelling national issue to galvanize voters. With high percentages of the public and Congress supporting President Bush’s anti-terrorism efforts, Democrats have struggled to find an issue that cuts their way.
They have attacked the GOP on aviation security, the collapse of Enron Corp. and Bush’s tax cut plan, among other things. But polls show Republicans running ahead or even with Democrats on key issues, including the economy and education.
Recently, House Democrats have hammered at Republican plans to dip into Social Security reserves, an issue they say resonates strongly with voters. But Republicans counter that the combination of war and recession gives them little choice but to return to deficit spending temporarily.
SHORT, SHALLOW RECESSION
Meanwhile, the economic recession is proving to be shorter and more shallow than many had expected, giving Democrats little opportunity to exploit it politically against Bush and his Republican allies.
“While there are good issues out there, there doesn’t seem to be a central rallying cry for Democrats yet,” said Democratic pollster Alan Secrest.
Matthew Dowd, a senior adviser to the Republican National Committee, says Democrats will need such a cause if they are to reclaim the House majority. “Can they do it?” he said. “Of course they can do it. They would have to have a wave behind them, and right now there’s no wave.”
The loss of the White House bully pulpit, which President Bill Clinton often used effectively, has complicated the Democrats’ task of communicating to voters. AFL-CIO political director Steve Rosenthal said the party is working on crafting a unified message. In the meantime, he said, he has been telling audiences, “I’ll buy dinner for anybody who can say what the Democrats stand for. So far nobody’s taken me up on it.”
Jenny Backus, spokeswoman for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the party will be able to portray House Republicans as captive to special interests because they have voted for corporate tax breaks that would have benefited companies such as the now-bankrupt Enron Corp. “With a Republican president, it’s a lot harder for moderate Republicans to look as moderate,” she said. “The White House has let the Republicans in the House become the bad cop.”
Without a galvanizing issue, Democratic activists say, it is all the more important that they field top-drawer candidates in competitive districts. They can point to several prize recruits, such as pediatrician Julie Thomas, who is challenging 26-year veteran Jim Leach (R-Iowa).
Still, several potentially vulnerable Republicans may escape without a fight. Democrats failed to entice two promising candidates to run against Indiana Republican John N. Hostettler, leaving only one viable opponent, who had less than $16,000 cash on hand at the end of last year. Similarly, two Pennsylvania Democrats have declined to challenge freshman GOP Rep. Melissa Hart, including the legislator who used to hold her seat.
Some of the incumbents whom Democrats hope to unseat, moreover, have already amassed sizable campaign funds to fend off challengers. Bonilla had nearly $800,000 in the bank by Jan. 1, while Rep. Mark Foley (R-Fla.) had close to $1.5 million.
Backus, who noted that the GOP failed to enlist its top choices against freshman Democrats Steve Israel (N.Y.) and Jim Matheson (Utah) and is still seeking Republican challengers for several Texas seats, argued that her party has already put plenty of Republican incumbents on the defensive. “Ask Tom Latham, Robin Hayes, Anne Northup and Connie Morella what they think of Democratic recruiting this cycle,” she said. “We are proud of our Democratic candidates who are running, and confident they will be part of our winning effort to build a new House in 2002.”
Finally, history may fail Democrats in their bid to
retake the House. With few exceptions over the past century, the party out of the White House has gained congressional seats in midterm elections. One reason is that presidents sometimes provide a lift to marginal candidates in a presidential election year. But two years later, with the president absent from the ballot, those freshmen sometimes have trouble winning a second term.
That scenario holds little promise for Democrats this year because Bush had few, if any, coattails in 2000, and the Sept. 11 attacks and the subsequent war on terrorism have upset traditional political calculations. And while midterm elections often serve as a way for voters to express their dissatisfaction with a sitting president, Bush’s popularity could counter that trend.
Several Democratic strategists said they remain optimistic they can win back the House, partly by taking advantage of several newly created districts as well as open seats left by retiring Republicans. They point to contests in Alabama, Colorado, Georgia, Maryland, New Mexico, South Dakota and Tennessee as some of their best prospects.
These Democrats also note that the political environment can shift suddenly, leaving Republicans in much worse shape in a matter of months.
“This thing is a tossup,” said Steve Elmendorf, chief of staff to House Minority Leader Richard A. Gephardt (D-Mo.). “Nobody can predict what’s going to happen between now and November.” |
