Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (21129)	4/4/2002 1:13:50 PM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 196644

Summary of Piper Jaffrey report.... investor.cnet.com Samuel S. May, Wireless Equipment Qualcomm Incorporated (NASDAQ: QCOM - $37.64 - #) Rating: Market Perform; Volatility: Medium Key Points: * We think QCOM's 2002 CDMA handset forecast of 80 million to 90 million is aggressive. As outlined in our new Global 3G Report, which has been released for circulation today, we are lowering our total CDMA subscriber forecast from 145.0 million to 139.0 million at YE 2002. Based on this forecast, we believe total CDMA handset sales will be around 78 million in 2002 (versus ~75 million in 2001). This assumes 27.6 million net additions, down from 31.0 million net adds in 2001, and replacement unit sales of around 45 million, up slightly from 44 million in 2001. * We think slow subscriber growth in China and slow 1xRTT adoption in the United States will offset positive CDMA uptake in Korea and Japan. With multiple potential bumps in the road in 2002, we believe company guidance and Street estimates could be in need of trimming, or, at the least, there is little upside to current numbers (note: in each of the past two conference calls, Qualcomm has lowered guidance). Current Street consensus for fiscal 2003 is $1.17. Since we remain near Street low for fiscal 2003 at $1.07, we are not changing our earnings-per-share forecast at this time. * Our preliminary estimates for fiscal 2004 assume 15 percent revenue growth and 10 percent to 15 percent earnings-per-share growth. Given our view on the slow migration to W-CDMA, and the likely success of EDGE as a long-lived intermediate step to 3G, we think it will be difficult for Qualcomm to grow in excess of 15 percent year-over-year. * We are lowering out rating from Outperform to Market Perform. We are lowering our price target from $50 to $38, based on 35 times our fiscal 2003 earnings-per-share estimate of $1.07. This valuation gives QCOM a ~15 percent premium to its comparable group, which trades at 31 times fiscal 2003 earnings-per-share.