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To: tsigprofit who wrote (10757)	4/4/2002 7:46:00 PM
From: James Strauss	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13094

thanx Jim. I've had problems with options in the past, because my time horizon was 1-2 weeks sometimes, and as you said, I could be right only to see the premium shrink - causing a loss. Am looking at playing some daytrades right now - doing some paper trading first. Matt: Over 90% of options expire worthless... I don't like those odds... Paper trading is a good idea but when you have actual money on the line sometimes emotion conflicts with reason... Jim

To: tsigprofit who wrote (10757)	4/4/2002 8:36:23 PM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 13094

This is part of an e-mail I received earlier this week, it might help a bit with understanding options, especially at this VIX low point> My analysis of the near-term situation is as follows -- the market can do one of two things -- it can rally. If the market rallies the Dow might even go to a new high above its March 12 peak of 10632.35. But if the Dow does advance to a new high, it's highly doubtful whether the Transports would confirm. So a Dow rally to new highs would not be bullish -- unless the Transports confirmed. The second possibility is that the market will decline from here. If it does, I'll be watching to see how much damage is done. A decline from here would probably see the Transports breaking to a new low below 2817.23. A new Transports low would simply confirm the weakness in the Transports and would even be a stronger indication that the market had built a top. I've gone into detail regarding the Industrial/Transports relationship because it's something you probably won't read or hear about anyplace else. Yet it was the Transports in early-March that provided the first hints that something was "wrong" in the price structure. From a fundamental standpoint, what could the weakness in the Transportation Average be telling us? My own guess, and it's strictly a guess, is that the Transports are telling us that US consumers are starting to pull back on their frenzied buying. Yesterday a number of retail store reported that sales had backed off. Wal-Mart, the bellwether of mass retailing, gapped down yesterday, closing below 60. WMT was lower today. On my computer I show 30 retailers with up-to-the-second prices on each -- from BBY to COST to ANN to MAY. Of the 30 retail stocks, 28 were down this morning. My take on the situation -- manufacturers may be building inventory but US consumers are starting to cut back and when consumers cut back on their buying -- the shipping of goods also declines. When shipping declines, it shows in the Transportation Average. And that's what I believe is happening, and that's what I believe the lagging, non-confirming Transports are telling us. At any given time in the stock market, the best bet is that the market is in a trading range. Option writers know that the market, any market, will spend two-thirds of the time in a trading range. Which is why option-sellers tend to make money and option-buyers tend to lose money. Trading ranges kill option-buyers because option buyers are betting on movement. A trading range is another way of saying that an item's movement will be limited.

To: tsigprofit who wrote (10757)	4/4/2002 10:55:36 PM
From: herry iball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

tsiprofit.....here is something to look into as well Message 17288256 You can practice trading the futures using a small amount of cash, and the contracts don't appreciate/depreciate as much so you don't tend to lose (or gain) much but get the practice in. Frankly, I do pretty well day trading index options using 60 minute chart setups. I also swing trade them, but again on a very short time frame (2-4 days).....if a trade starts going against me (technically) I just bail. Interactive Brokers has very cheap commissions and fast fills so the commission price issue is not a problem with moving in and out of the trades. (but those spreads can be a major pain).