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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gopher Broke who wrote (76538)	4/5/2002 11:44:46 AM
From: wanna_bmw	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

Gopher, Re: "The guy is just playing the classic role of bear pretending to be a reformed bull to try and make his arguments carry more weight." I saw it as the other way around. It appeared that he was once a bull on AMD stock, but he is now becoming bearish. I was once extremely bearish on AMD, but now I am slightly more bullish. I even own AMD stock now (I did before, but not with the intention of holding it long term). In my opinion, AMD's prospects are very good, but their execution right now is very bad. However, I don't find it at all surprising, since AMD has taken nearly a complete turn as a company from where they were several years ago. They are now looking to take control of higher margin markets, and are attacking their competitor on all fronts. I predicted long ago that AMD would be spreading themselves too thin with so many processor releases set for 2002, and it looks like I was right. AMD is having terrible execution problems. If it wasn't for fantastic processors like Hammer just about ready to come out of the pipe, then I wouldn't even consider AMD as having a chance at all. Now my criticisms, I think, are in good faith. AMD certainly has the potential to do quite well. However, it should be underscored that all is not going to be easy for them, and I think that the article in question here successfully illustrates that point. Errol from the article isn't saying that AMD is a bad buy. He is saying that there are plenty of barriers in the way of their goals, and that their competitor has finally improved their execution, after having done so poorly the year before. I don't think that Intel can bury AMD at this point - if Hammer is even half as good as people think it is, then that product alone will guarantee AMD's future for the next couple years. However, I don't expect it to magically make things that much easier for them. They still have to ensure that Hammer can be manufactured with good yields, that they can market and sell it based on improved performance, that they can control costs, that they can build infrastructure, and that they can still execute on future product lines. If AMD puts 100% of available resources on Hammer, then there is nothing else in the pipeline, and eventually Intel will have something better. That's why Hammer needs to be a step in the right direction, but my impression from Jerry is that AMD has put all their resources in one place. Delays in AMD's other product lines seem to indicate this. But I will continue to hold my positions in hopes that AMD executes better, and that given the amount of momentum on Hammer, that AMD can at least execute well on that one project. After Hammer is launched, though, I will have to reconsider how strong AMD will be in the future. wbmw