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Technology Stocks : Leap Wireless International (LWIN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (1871)	4/5/2002 2:01:14 PM
From: pcstel	Respond to of 2737

slacker: Thanks for providing the data points from VOXX. I would be surprised if the 5170 does not see sub-$100 range soon. With a selling price from Cricket of $89, The cash cost for the subsidy would be less than $35 dollars. It will be interesting to compare the pictures of the insides of the KYO 1135 vs the first "Radio One" KYO phone that shows up on the FCC site! Just to get a realization on how many fewer parts are in the BOM. PCSTEL

To: slacker711 who wrote (1871)	4/6/2002 3:17:51 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2737

Slacker: What do you think the gross and net subscribers adds are going to be for Q1 2002? PJ has increased the estimate based on channel surveys to 225,000 net adds. I think that even the 225,000 net add number is low. I tried to estimate the additions in two ways. 1. The overall age of the Leap's covered POPs by the end of Q1 2002 will be nearly 11 months. Leap has indicated that at the end of 12 months its typical market is penetrated to between 6 and 7 percent. Let us assume the lower number - 6 percent. So at the end of Q1 2002, based on 11 months age of the markets, the overall penetration can be assumed as 5.4 percentage. Therefore, the total subs will be 5.4/10025,300,000 = 1,366,000. That's about an increase of 247,000. Net Adds = 247,000. 2. I looked at the approximate ratio of gross additions and inventory handsets of previous quarter. The number has varied between 1.9-3.4. Being conservative, assume that the Gross Adds in Q1 2002/Inventory Handsets in Q4 2001 is 1.6. With 45 M inventory in Q4 2001, and $185/handset, that's about 245,000 handsets. Gross adds = 1.6245,000 = 392,000 Gross Adds. The net adds corresponding to that work out to be around 270,000. So my estimates are between 250,000 to 270,000 Net Adds for Q1 2002. If they are much lesser, I will have to tweak my model. :-) Arun