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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (10864)	4/21/2002 11:15:56 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

MG, This E-Wave stuff is really interesting! TM bought me a book on the subject. I wish I'd gotten into it a long time ago. It seems that a long time ago a Dude projected that after a 5 wave move up the Market would have a very reasonable and normal 3 wave move down. The five waves up are labeled, surprisingly, 1-2-3-4-5 and the the three corrective moves are labeled A-B-C. The only general rule seems to be that corrective move should not go below the low of the Wave 4 up move. So based on upon TM's gift to me, here is my gift to the thread. The caveat is expressed that that which is lightly valued is valued lightly. For OEX, we have completed a 3 wave "A" in the correction pattern from the monthly 8/00 high of 834.94 to the monthly 9/01 low of 480.07. The "B" wave up should take us to OEX ~615 (38%). Then, unfortunately, the "C" wave down will commence, just as the bulls get all lathered up. The eventual projection is to OEX 455. This is an important number in the investment world. It is (1) the low IMHO of the wave 4 down in 10/98, and (2) by the time we get there, it will be the level of the monthly uptrend line. So, from this E-Wave newbie, the upside projection is about 9.8%, and, then, the downside projection will about 26%. On any close below OEX 540, I would suggest to not walk, but run for the exits. FWIW, the DJIA projections are somewhat different. The upside projection is in the 11,350 neighborhood. However, thereafter, the downside projection is to about 7,400. To reach this level the Industrial Cyclicals in the DJIA are going to have to collapse. Funny thing is that it makes some sense from an FA perspective. The Fed doesn't raise rates at the May meeting and everybody is happy. Then, after the July earnings come out, everyone begins to realize that there is no recovery in '02 and, due to the federal budget deficit, the Fed Reserve is forced to raise interest rates. As the down Mo-Mo accelerates, the election happens, and the only thing that the Dems can slam the administration on is the economy. An interesting game plan, but any close below OEX 540 and I run for the exit. Just a View from the Swamp TB