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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: carranza2 who wrote (23680)	4/6/2002 10:57:41 AM
From: DrGrabow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Once the Russian oil industry builds up its production, we will see the influence of Middle Eastern producers like the Saudis wane. Couldn't agree with you more. Oil production in Russia will change the political landscape worldwide specifically in the Middle East. Russia did enter into an agreement with OPEC about reducing their output until June of this year. Once that 'agreement' is passed I expect Russia to crank up the oil machine in order to modernize their infrastructure. After weeks of arm-twisting, the non-OPEC total came up short with only 462,500 barrels per day (500,000 was the goal). rferl.org Russia and OPEC: Aiming for higher stakes By Mayra Rodriguez Valladares 06-03-02 "Russia's cooperation is crucial for a stable oil market... [We] hope Russia and other non-OPEC producers will continue to cooperate." United Arab Emirates Minister for Petroleum and Mineral Resources Obeid bin Saif Al Nasiri made this subtle plea on February 19 at the recent International Symposium on Energy Development in the Gulf. gasandoil.com I'm sure the Saudi monarchy is eyeing Russia in that their increased oil production will eventually bring about their downfall thereby installing a fundamentalist government. Economics brings about revolutions?

To: carranza2 who wrote (23680)	4/6/2002 11:58:29 AM
From: skinowski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

As far as oil goes, I came to a conclusion, as a young fellow back in the early 70’s, that Russia may eventually rip great rewards because of the incredible Soviet inefficiency…;-) The Soviets were bad news… Throughout their rule, they were not able to develop their resources (and preserved the oil reserves by default)… they were not even able to build a single passable road across Siberia. I am optimistic about Russia. For as long as they will continue building a political system supportive of the right of an individual, I think their future is bright. About Middle East… For the moment the events there are stealing the show, and I think to a large extent it happened by design. But when the dust settles, again, it will be the war of crazed Islamists against the rest of the world, and America will have to lead, because no one else will…

To: carranza2 who wrote (23680)	4/6/2002 12:11:18 PM
From: Win Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

I assume you mean "The battle between Russia and Saudi Arabia for oil dominance" foreignaffairs.org . You can check the previous comments on that article here by following the response chains from #reply-17069011 . As I posted at the time, that particular incisive article was not totally consistent. In particular, from that article: Even before September 11, concerns had been raised over American reliance on Middle East oil. Global oil demand has been increasing by between 1.5 and 2 mbd each year, a rate of growth with alarming long-term consequences. The U.S. Department of Energy and the International Energy Agency both project that global oil demand could grow from the current 77 mbd to 120 mbd in 20 years, driven by the United States and the emerging markets of South and East Asia. The agencies assume that most of the supply required to meet this demand must come from OPEC, whose production is expected to jump from 28 mbd in 1998 to 60 mbd in 2020. Virtually all of this increase would come from the Middle East, especially Saudi Arabia. Russia will no doubt increase production, but I think there's some wishful thinking going on when people talk about Mideast / Saudi production somehow becoming irrelevant and inconsequential.