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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (11500)	4/7/2002 11:07:42 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Although in contrast to the "official rhetoric" is it thought by many, that our U.S. Treasurer - Mr. Simon, thinks a lower dollar would in fact be of great competitive value. A lower dollar would deliver more exports from America to the world.This would only somewhat reduce the tilt of the long term Trade Imbalance(read that as Deficits). The trade imbalance will continue because capital still comes to this safehaven country. Even with our rates dropping - I believe the US still has a safety premium on capital as well as a 1/2 to 3/4 point rate premium.These two factors will still continue to attract more capital. Simon ,who's experience is actual business (Alcoa ceo)knows how unfair a strong dollar is to the manufacturing companies of America and their working class employees. The only bright spot of a strong dollar for our manufacturing sector is - it forces domestic manufacturers to be technologically efficient.If they are not - they fail to exist.Their inability to compete on price which results from a "strong currency" penalty - forces excellence in technology. All in All not a "BAD THING". That doesn't mean that a little weaker dollar couldn't provide a small priming of the pump in a time where American manufacturing has been in an inventory selloff mode for 18 months.It could very well purge the stock and get the recovery vitalized - without a cost at all. Although not the big picture, I think Simon would like to see it as a little pump priming or boost at the bottom. As a general motors dealer for 15 years,I have noted that Gm's market share has only grown(albeit to few times)during times of Dollar weakness.Dollar weakness creates tremendous export/import imbalances. In my opinion we share our wealth with the rest of the free world by assuring a strong dollar.This makes a place for other less efficient business models and their products to be relatively potent in our economy. Thus is the future path of Global trade and the harmony of all democracies.The imposition of an embargo by Monarchs or Dictators better hurry up and happen or long term plans will take care of doing no business with them before they have their 15 seconds of fame. To hypothecate that Arab oil money may not be coming to America like it has in the past - is a no brainer.I'm sure the freezing of Al Queda Assets struck a uncomfortable fear - even if they were not of question.In a time of an embargo - one would want all of one's assets home and safe. For the Dollar to not have its normal bouyancy during a spike in oil price is not too hard to figure out what is missing.Arab money flows. This is admittedly a big picture and optmistic view - but I do believe that is the goal and past track record of an unbelievably strong U.S. Dollar. JMHO I believe any weakness will be short lived - somewhat beneficial to the homeland.As to where our Arab friends find security - I believe it will come at the shelf of a voting booth - when and if they embrace Democracy. Many bullets and much blood will be spent in between. All in an effort to continue what can only be called a waste of wealth trying to continue the errant ways of the globe's largest display of "The lucky gene pool". A sunday morning rant - apologies in advance. Bob