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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: frankw1900 who wrote (24034)	4/9/2002 7:34:18 AM
From: Ilaine	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

Wishful thinking, but take a look at reality. The Iran-Iraq war lasted for eight years. Iran and Iraq are large, powerful nation states that have existed in more or less the same territory for thousands of years. If one can be said to be able to "afford" war, Iran and Iraq were able to afford war. Other nations were content to let them slog it out, more or less unassisted. Israel is powerful, but small, and has only been in existence for a few decades. The Palestinians are powerless, but have powerful friends who will come to their aid. Israel can't afford a long, drawn out war of attrition. And the rest of the world can't afford World War III. The population of the settlements is approximately 3 million Palestinians, and approximately 200,000 Israelis. The population of Israel, not counting the settlements, is approximately 6 million, of which 80% are Jews. The Israelis may dream of shoving the Palestinians over the border into Jordan and Egypt, but I think that's an impossible objective, militarily, politically, physically. 5 million people can't physically move 3 million people, especially when the place they are trying to move them to is pushing back. The Germans had a devil of a time moving fewer Jews out of Germany, and they controlled all of Europe at the time. The above is geopolitical analysis. The below is emotional reaction. Take a look sometime at the trains the Nazis used. There's a boxcar in the Holocaust museum, but it's pretty much like all boxcars. Sit in one sometime and try to imagine a couple of hundred people in there with you, no food, no water, no toilet. Remember how the world said "never again"? Do you honestly think we'd let the Israelis practice ethnic cleansing? Wrong is wrong, no matter who does it. Wiping out Islamism by force is also a fantasy, I am beginning to believe. I am beginning to think it's not a rogue element but a genuine political movement that, like all political movements, will have to be accommodated. We condemn the world of Islam for not adapting to modern times. Well, I think we're seeing what happens when the world of Islam adapts to modern times. Most of Africa, almost all of the Middle East, and a big swath of Asia are potentially under their control, and if they unite against us . . . .

To: frankw1900 who wrote (24034)	4/9/2002 10:18:29 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi frankw1900; Re: "By late 1987, the carnage of the Iran-Iraq war had burned out the martyrdom syndrome among young Iranian men." My point is that it took until 1987 to burn the martyrdom syndrome, and that this was only after 600,000 Iranians had been killed. With a population of about 60 million, this is a death rate of 1%. This in a war where neither side was threatening the other with anything more than ownership of a few islands. Translating that 1% figure into the Palestine conflict (because the conflict is a far more serious one, and even women are executing suicide attacks) would increase it to a considerably higher number, but even 1% of 3 million people is 30,000. -- Carl