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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (24264)	4/10/2002 4:19:30 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

My point is that it took until 1987 to burn the martyrdom syndrome, ... Carl, you're right about Iraq-Iran but that doesn't necessarily make the point about Israel-Palestinian hostilities invalid. The misery there has been going on for a long time and during that whole time Israel has never done anything to invalidate Arafat's position. His position is that he can practise unsymetrical war against Israel successfully; That the Israelis don't have the stomach for effective opposition; That he has an unending supply of sacrificial goats who will blow themselves up on his behalf; That he can successfully deny responsibility for the people and organizations who carry out the attacks; that he can effectively smother alternatives to himself; and that Israel can be destroyed. He has convinced, to varying degrees, some palestinians of his position and he has had help from the islamists in this. The Iran-Iraq war was carried on like WW1 and mostly at a distance from main centres but the Infitada2 war is right in everyone's face and results can be seen right away. How long it might take and at what cost in lives before burnout sets in, I don't know. Apart from lunatic or hypocritical minorities, Israel doesn't want a palestinian colony or underclass, it wants the palestinians to give up the destroy-Israel-project and get on with the running-their-own-modern-country-project. How long before this choice looks attractive and what the cost might be isn't clear, is it? You imply in your post that it might take a long while at great cost. It certainly could if the sources of the mad ideology and those that support it are not cut off and cut out. On the other hand, if they are, then it might not take all that long. Sides do fall often when leadership is taken out, especially if its message is meretricious. It's not totally clear to me that quantizing time and cost on the basis of Iran - Iraq (or WW2 or US Civil War) is reasonable procedure. In those cases the warfare was symetrical and and carried out over large areas. There aren't any models that fit, very well, that I can think of. Afghanistan and Cambodia have some similarities but aren't parallel. Perhaps some of the partisan situations at the end of WW2 are closest. But truthfully, I think we are in unknown country: The real description, I think, is that Israel has a tar baby attached to it by some of its neighbours, (and also inadvertantly by the Europeans and US), and by its attempt to solve by diplomatic means a problem unsolvable by those means. (I think the Jewish settlements have further complicated the problem but that they are not the cause of it). Infitada2 is the first real confrontation between islamism and the modern world. I said months ago Afghanistan is just a side show. Palestine, on the other hand, is a show piece. I hope the US doesn't screw it up with their interference. Just thinking out loud, Carl. Tell me how wrong I am.