To: frankw1900 who wrote (24301 ) 4/10/2002 5:17:42 AM From: Bilow Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500 Hi frankw1900; Re: "You imply in your post that it might take a long while at great cost. It certainly could if the sources of the mad ideology and those that support it are not cut off and cut out. On the other hand, if they are, then it might not take all that long. Sides do fall often when leadership is taken out, especially if its message is meretricious. " This is probably what the British were saying when they decided to get involved in Ireland in 1171 (and with a far harsher hand in that brutal time than the Israelis are able to get away with). The conflict didn't end until 900 years of "cutting out" Irish leadership later, and when it did, it was because the British gave up power over most of the island, and in the remaining quarter gave the Catholics what they had demanded for most of a millenium. The historical fact is that when humans see some chance of success, they'll fight for their rights for not just a "long time", but for their whole lives, and then their children will take up the fight and so on for eternity. Humans make nasty second class citizens, particularly when the class is distinguished by religion. This is not to say that you can't force a group into second class citizenship. But the (many) examples of the success of such forcing all have in common the hopelessness of the severely outnumbered second class citizens. For example, the Indians in North America had no chance against the Europeans, the Jews had no chance against Germany, and slaves in various societies were kept that way by keeping them unarmed and powerless. While the Israelis have the Palestinians outnumbered (and definitely outgunned), they do not have the Palestinian's Arab allies at all outnumbered. It seems like what you're suggesting is that if Israel just got rid of Arafat all their problems would be solved. This has been an option for Israel for decades. In fact Israel has been killing / assassinating Palestinian leaders for a long long time. The Israelis aren't stupid. If killing Arafat would solve their problems they'd have done it a long time ago. Killing minor leaders also hasn't solved their problem any better than the historical fact that repeated execution of the leaders of repeated Irish rebellions stopped the Irish from generating new leaders and rebelling again. This is not a pissing match between two leaders (like the Iran Iraq war, or maybe even Hitler in WW2), this is a fight between two peoples over one territory. That's why it's so vicious. There simply is not room in Palestine / Israel for two different governments, each presumably based on two different ineffective religions. Re: "The Iran-Iraq war was carried on like WW1 ... " This is true, but who knows what the Israeli conflict will evolve into. Right now it looks like a replay of Israel's disastrous foray into Lebanon. The only difference is that the poison that inadequate military force creates is this time much closer to Israel's population centers. The Palestinians will be and have been much more effective at bringing the war home to Israeli citizens. Re: "... and mostly at a distance from main centres but the Infitada2 war is right in everyone's face and results can be seen right away. " This is exactly correct. That is why US support for Israel (or Palestine) will melt away just like US support for South Africa melted away in the face of that conflict. With the Iraq / Iran conflict, there wasn't daily reporting with pictures of the carnage. This meant that the rest of the world (including the US) could pursue its real politic policy of arranging for Iraq and Iran to bleed each other by supplying assistance to the weaker party. This was an immoral policy on the part of the West, but it was only possible because of the absence of reporting on the region. But that ain't gonna happen in Israel. As this conflict continues and becomes more bloody, all arms to the combatants are going to be embargoed. It's just a matter of time, and time is in the favor of the Palestinians. Re: "How long it might take and at what cost in lives before burnout sets in, I don't know. " It's not like Ireland is the only example of long term hostilities in the human race. Take a look at how long the Sri Lankans have been going at it. That situation is reminiscent of the Israeli situation because you have a second class ethnic minority in Sri Lanka which forms an ethnic majority in the more general region. It seems like that is a recipe for disaster. When local ethnic minorities have big brothers across an adjacent border they have to be treated with respect proportionate to the power of the neighbor. Texas successfully rebelled from Mexico under just such conditions. The Cambodians ended up with a war with Vietnam for similar reasons. By the way, no one cares much about the Sri Lankan situation (except Arthur C. Clarke). If 1% of the US population was Sri Lankan it'd be all over the front page (especially since they've detonated more suicide bombs than the Palestinians, though the Palestinians are catching up), but they haven't emigrated here in big numbers. There are large numbers of Jews here, so what happens in Israel is bigger news than what happens, for instance, in Serbia. Here, read about the Sri Lankan issue from the side that doesn't get much press (shudder):dalitstan.org The other side:members.tripod.com I like this (not necessarily balanced) article: "The final straw, however, was the introduction in the early 1970s of communal quotas for university entrance. This led to the exclusion of merit-worthy Tamil students and it was this that set the ethnic powder keg alight. With 'standardisation', it became clear that the Tamils had lost the education and employment opportunities which had conditioned their commitment to a unitary Ceylon in the first place. Large numbers of young Tamils came to the conclusion that their socio-economic aspirations could only be fulfiled within a separate Tamil state. ... In the 1977 parliamentary elections, the recently formed Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF), running on a secessionist platform, received a convincing mandate throughout the north and east. This confirmed that Sri Lanka was now inhabited by two nations, each perceiving itself as endangered, and each demanding its own concept of self-determination to guarantee economic opportunities and preserve cultural identity. "tamilcanadian.com Until "Large numbers of young " Palestinians come "to the conclusion that their socio-economic aspirations " can "be fulfiled within a separate " and equal Palestinian "state ", the Israelis are going to have a problem forcing them to be second class citizens. If the Holy Land was in Utah the Israelis could dominate the Palestinians. But it's not. In the midst of a sea of Arab majorities, keeping a substantial Arab minority as second class citizens is plainly impossible. Similarly, forcing them into a runt state with gerrymandered borders and with security overseen by a non Arab state is also impossible. Re: "Just thinking out loud, Carl. " That's what we're all doing, at least those of us who haven't already completely made up their minds. -- Carl