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To: James Strauss who wrote (10821)	4/12/2002 12:25:46 PM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

Well, by waiting we left 90 cents on the table so far today..I am day humping it for 2 bits this minute... Message 17322323

To: James Strauss who wrote (10821)	4/12/2002 5:00:06 PM
From: Jibacoa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

ORBT JIM: It was nice to see ORBT trading above its June H of 5.12.<g> It seems that if it can stay above 5 next week the uptrend may accelerate some more.<g> How does it look to you ? siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com siliconinvestor.com RAGL Bernard

To: James Strauss who wrote (10821)	4/14/2002 12:32:08 PM
From: Bucky Katt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13094

Jim, the cover of Barron's has something we have been talking about for some time, and the title is> Home Groan Rising housing prices have kept the economy afloat. What happens if the bubble bursts? A few words from the article The good> The U.S. economy has become a street of broken dreams. Capital spending on technology and telecommunications collapsed last year, sending the nation into recession. The Nasdaq Composite seems permanently mired in a trading range below 2000, more than 60% beneath its vertiginous peak above 5000 just two years ago. Stock investors have suffered mightily. Yet there's one investment area that is still booming, even after a year of recession. And that's residential real estate, the very bedrock of the American Dream. Since 1995, helped by modest interest rates, median home prices across the country have jumped nearly 40%, according to the National Association of Realtors. The increases are materially higher in some cities, such as Boston, where home prices have jumped 96%; San Francisco, up 83%; San Diego, up 74%; Denver, up 70%; and the New York Metro area, which has risen 56%. The bad> Rosner also claims that some lenders are increasingly "modifying" or otherwise recasting the mortgages of troubled borrowers to artificially reduce delinquencies, defaults and foreclosures. Often, months of missed mortgage payments are merely tacked on the mortgage balance and the length of the loan is extended to get a borrower back on track. Sometimes, the delinquent mortgage holder can even garner a lower interest rate, making his monthly payment the same or lower, depending on the loan's unpaid principal balance. The prevalence of modifications is a closely guarded secret. Fannie Mae, wrapping itself in the flag, boasted in a recent press release that it was able to "work out" some 16,000 loans, or 52% of its 30,000 seriously delinquent loans last year. Four years earlier, only 12,000, or 35% of its 34,000 in troubled loans escaped foreclosure. The number of worked-out loans is likely far higher for both Fannie and Freddie. The originators and servicers of their mortgages don't even have to report modifications if less than $15,000 is added to the loan balance, the term of the loan is extended by seven years or less and the interest rate isn't raised. A number of banks and sub-prime specialists like Household International have increasingly been resorting to work-outs, too. There are dangers in all of this, according to Rosner. Modifications may merely postpone an inevitable default. Relapse rates for troubled mortgage borrowers are likely as high as those of coke heads coming out of rehab, one skeptic recently noted. Too, modifications probably paint a false picture for regulators and investors looking at mortgage-delinquency, credit-loss and foreclosure data. "Modifications are seriously distorting the optics of the mortgage markets," Rosner argues. These modifications notwithstanding, 3.13% of all prime mortgages were delinquent in last year's third quarter, the most recent for which data is available. This was the highest total since the 1991 recession when loan delinquencies stood at 3.26% for this upper crust, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. In the mythology of the American Way of Life, homeownership has long been deemed the sine qua non for producing better citizens. An owner has a bigger stake in society than a mere renter. A home is an essential piece of the American Dream. One can only hope that in the months ahead, falling home prices and disappearing home equity don't end up making homeownership part of a new American Nightmare. And the ugly> A few statistics highlight the huge buildup of mortgage debt. Twenty years ago, annual consumer-debt payments -- basically mortgages, credit cards and auto loans -- stood at around 60% of disposable personal income. That ratio has since risen steadily to slightly above 100% of personal income in the fourth quarter of last year, according to the latest Fed data. At $5.6 trillion, mortgage-debt accounts for the lion's share of total household debt of $7.7 trillion. This is a must read article.. You can get the Barron's & WSJ on-line versions cheap.. online.wsj.com