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To: Sam Citron who wrote (184)	4/12/2002 3:59:29 PM
From: kdavy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13403

Pharma/Biotech: Sam there are many reasons why I don't invest in Pharma/Biotech companies at least now. ( I do invest in Amgen/biogen/genz but not these days) Big Pharma a mammoths with revenues greater than most conuntries. For them to grow, they need many blockbuster drugs which can bring billions of dollars (drugs that do not cure disease but maintain the status quo eq. lipitor, epogen etc.), most big pharmas are losing patent protections on their megadrugs, so not a good choice for investment. Small pharma mostly depend on generics which is not a long term recipe for growth. Also, there is competition from big pharmas who make generics also. The key is to see the pipeline. But remember only 10 out of 100 molecules make it to phase I clinical studies and 1 out of 10 make it to approval (NDA). It takes 200-300 millions to complete development. Small biotechs are great research companies with great ideas. But ideas do not make great products. Untill a companies makes money, it is gambling to invest in them. Large biotech have good investment potential but are overvalued (amgn, bgen, imnx, genz, dna). Long term these are good investments. But not exciting. This is a general overview of my thinking about pharma/biotech investing. I am always on the lookout. I will let you know if I see any exciting potential. Just remember: Linear circuits, programable logic and equipment manufacturers, for now this is the mantra. Timing is everything. kdavy