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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2751)	4/14/2002 2:23:54 PM
From: JSLyons	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95474

Hello RtS, I'll be the first to admit a lack of experience with TA, but the P&F charts for NVLS and TXN are weak, with both having broken under local support. INTC is a bit better but not that much. If it hits a low of 27, just 7 cents under its recent level, it could break down. That's not to say they won't reverse upward on next week's news, but these weak patterns suggest negative sentiment for now. I don't hold any of these -- the high PE of a mature company like INTC is not attractive in my eyes, even at this point in the cycle -- but I do hold lotsa semi-equips that will likely move in sympathy with these results. Let's hope for the best, Jonathan

To: Return to Sender who wrote (2751)	4/14/2002 9:56:42 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95474

Hi RtS, Thanks, Speaking of buying the dip - look at Txn first to announce Monday after the close. Your attention to detail is outstanding in this post.Here it is - the batting roster : first up TXN second up Intc.These two major players have greats statistics: Perhaps most important of all they've played the game long enough to know you don't want inventory overhang - a lesson some of the rookies coming up from the minor are JUST learning: JDSU/Csco. When things slow down - back off.Getting off to a good start after the inventory sells down is a big key towards being a market leader - its called: GOOD BUSINESS. Just Basic good business 101 - something that last cycles great leaders are just beginning to appreciate.JMHO I think the layoffs and low interest rates will surface as powerfully surprising earnings generators.If true and the market is at an inflection point - well there are a record number of shorts out there that will fuel the next pop up to a higher level of consolidation. Most of the players in the SOX are oversold - that's a very good spice to mix with high short levels. One thing for sure we'll know by wednesday P.M.. I suspect you know - and pardon my ignorance:Is the sox cap weighted? That is who contributes the most to the index's moves? I'd guess Intc has to be big - or Not?? Thanks for the great contribution of facts that will allow us all, to get an early read on how Mr. Market treats the earnings reports. Bob