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To: techanalyst1 who wrote (11146)4/17/2002 9:07:17 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 57684
 
what do you think will happen to the stock though... its a tough call imo because waiting for that call seemed like an eternity, and expectations were really low obviously.

The did push out 50mm in orders minimum (50 deals so probably more than 50mm) to next q. They made their estimate on the license revenue side almost (3mm down, I think, with licenses estimated at 250mm) so if this is the "worst quarter they've ever had" it wasn't a catastrophe.

If sebl falls I'm thinking its a buy, just on the basis of the recovery we're seeing in chips and the slight recovery in telecom. Those were huge mkts for everybody that just died, totally so some $$ will come back next quarter there.



To: techanalyst1 who wrote (11146)4/17/2002 9:22:18 PM
From: Wizard  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 57684
 
Well after the Veritas guidance, which left pretty much everyone scratching their heads at the magnitude, it is actually refreshing to hear Tom's straightforwardness... He doesn't know what is going to happen with IT spending in Q2 and neither does Gary Bloom and neither does Amnon Landon... However, the next 12 months are going to be ok. Huge rebound? no. June quarter?? who knows??

The interesting thing is that last year (2001), the tech market generally slid on the rumors of bad results and relief-rallied when the vendors finally admitted it. This year, the stocks have been fighting bad rumors and then have slid again on guidance capitulation. "Yah we made the quarter but I have no clue if we can do it again"... I thought Q1 was going to be the toughest quarter of the year but it sounds like Q2 is going to be nearly as tough. This is a rough environment.

At this point, you wonder if anyone in any segment is ever going to be able to grow 20% sequentially again... the good news is that we are only 70 days or so from the magic 'second half of the year'.... where al-qaeda can probably smack us just as momentum is starting to build again...