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To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (161011)4/19/2002 7:04:11 PM
From: Mark Adams  Respond to of 436258
 
Joan,

the metals where the least expensive production reserves have been mined

This might be true in some cases. I notice there is lots of interest in places like Chile, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea and so forth, which seem to have better quality reserves.

I think you have to take it case by case- or commodity by commodity. The easy Pallidium may have been tapped. Is that true for Nickel and Copper? With so much of the world still unexplored, how can we make the assertion the low hanging fruit has been picked?

coffee produced by Vietnam and Central America is crap

So I've heard, and yet is what most of american buys in their tins, knowing or not. I'll stick with you and your Kona Gold....

Happen to be in the camp that think the US dollar is in a bubble and has been hiding inflation. I have been thinking this for over 3 years and have been dead wrong. <g>

Was there, is there and I don't know. I believe asset inflation soaked up some extra credit. And there are buckets of the stuff floating around the world, under mattresses and so forth. So is the dollar in a bubble? Maybe- but look at the dollar against a basket of currencies over the past decade. Takes on a new look.

Will changes in the dollar effect commodity pricing? Or the inverse? Hmmm...

If Russia and China can deliver the base metals at a lower price this would cause price stability or go lower in price.

I think there is no question they can. It's just a matter of investment priorities. Perhaps Jay Chen could cast more light on the nature of Chinese Base Metal production going forward.

BTW- there are some links on Roger's efforts in this other post you may not have seen. Worth looking at- especially the relative weighting he chose.

Message 17357430