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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (26858)	4/24/2002 4:02:22 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

I think that Gerecht was really onto something when he wrote the article you linked the other day, Nadine. In a nutshell, he believes that it suicide to show weakness in the Middle East. The minute the US or Israel makes concessions, they will be assailed. This is the Barak lesson and it is the Clinton lesson. The Islamists and their supporters, including Saddam, OBL, and their ilk, understand one thing and one thing only--force and the power of a military machine ready, willing, and able to inflict serious pain. It is the only effective deterrent. It might also be the reason why the Agha and Malley view recently articulated at FA which suggested that the phased nature of the peace processes were the reason for their failure, not problems with their substance, might be flawed. This view is the one thing that gives me hope as I have no doubt that once the tallying ends, the radical Palestinians and their friends will realize that they have suffered yet another terrible defeat. Coupled with a win over Iraq within the next 12 to 18 months, these victories might form the basis for a short-lived peace of 5 to 8 years, until what I'll call the "Gerecht Lesson" is again forgotten and more conflict erupts. If this view that Arabs only respect force is correct, it also forms the basis for a strange paradox, i.e, how can a liberal democracy devoted to peaceful pursuits, a believer in negotiation not armed conflict, incorporate such a reality into its foreign policy? I suppose that for Israel, it is a simple thing to do since self-preservation is at stake. But the Europeans and the Americans? I suppose painful lessons have to be learned, like the one we learned on 9/11. The Europeans have not yet had such an experience, a fact that might account for their tepid response. Plus, none of their critical national interests appear to be at stake. If the Islamists are really smart, they'll leave the Euros alone and use them for the pro-Arab political positions they'll presumably take against the US and Israel.