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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (78404)	4/25/2002 8:29:54 PM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

wbmw, On the bright side, since yield is about 44% on the Palomino (90/206 die/wafer), then we can estimate slightly better yield on .13u (smaller die, say 50%), which is 170 good die per wafer. 60,000 wafers with 170 good die per wafer could produce 10.2M die that quarter. And that's not counting UMC. Whatever the yield is, as long as AMD is not able to sell out all of the output, it any kind of yield penalty is just a tiny, barely perceptible increase in costs (blank wafers, chemicals, labor). Once AMD is able to sell out all of it's output, yield would become the bottleneck, and if the yield will turn out to be below par, you will hear me complain about it. Right now it is just an academic exercise. Joe

To: wanna_bmw who wrote (78404)	4/25/2002 8:39:59 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

So given the 4.5M Athlons that AMD produced that quarter out of Dresden, that means that they were able to get 4500/50 = 90 good die per wafer. Everybody was right. Those "world class yields" are mind blowing.... <G> Everybody???? uuuhumm (clearing my throat). Yes, 90 GDPW is in the ballpark of what I predicted and it is anything buy "World Class Yields". Lets see now, between a select few of us, we showed that 1). AMD has p*ss poor yields. AMD's own numbers confirm. 2). AMD would see very little performance improvement switching to .13u process because they were already using .13u transistors on their .18u process. The anemic speeds of their meager shipments confirm. It really wasn't very hard. The evidence was in plain view. All we had to do was "connect the dots". The picture was plain for anyone who was willing to open their eyes and see. Now having said all that I'm still an AMD investor because, #1 Even though Intel made major gains in Flash market share, a meaningful recovery could move AMD over the top into profitability and #2, if AMD can correct their yields problems and if they can get their .13u process into production (I mean real production, not the embarrassing intro their did last week), they stand a good chance of returning to the $15-$20 range and I can continue to write CCs indefinately. EP