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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JEB who wrote (42464)	4/27/2002 6:07:16 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

<The latest rally seems different to me. Historically, the rallies are typically sharper and shorter than this latest rally. This is a steady rally (unusual for the XAU). > The events surrounding that help make a gold a reliable item and form the basis of this rally are also little extended in time. Like events from 11th of Sept have introduced certain uncertainty after that Afghan war and than Iraq-Iran Korea issue associated with ME violence, all these heavy weight events cause that spike and provide the continuity needed for this rally, otherwise previous rallies if you scratch a surface a little were based on unsettling events on a shorter time scale. 97, 98, 99, gold rallies were Sept-Oct gold rallies, depicting inverse relationships with the markets as markets sold Gold use to rally, with the exception of 2000 when Gold dipped after central banks sold big that made a new low, now from that low a higher base was formed and with events in 2001 that were truly global in nature a base gave gold a good push that has firmly broken a trend channel. Gold in my opinion from time we know has inverse relationship with peace and price, if we have peace Gold sells off if we have tensions the gold rallies, my bigger picture tells me here at this very advanced juncture of mankind the most important issues are being tackled like the decades old Palestinian-Arab issue or Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan, the cold war has ended, the world is beginning to see reason and logic after that 11th Sept attack, a new beginning is in the offing. From early traces of human civilisation in Mesopotamia Gold is a commodity that has been hoarded due to its rarity, it has never lost its significance and its attraction, however we are not living in a commodity world, the significance of commodities and their importance have been greatly damaged since that Hunt brothers Silver crisis and failure of Club of Rome dire predictions that oil and commodities by year 2000 will run short those were made back in 70’s. Take out or address the volatile events surrounding us since Sept 2001 and let peace ushers in ME and South Asia including Afghanistan, once these uncertainties of global terror are addressed Gold will drop, I see your point and technically Gold rally is a fact but like Oil rally it will fizzle, it does not have legs of history supporting it, I don’t see Mongols ruining into cities, I see benevolent take out of extremists even in Jenin, and that bodes well for mankind. In a world where ‘knowledge is power’ commodity and raw aggression has no place, I think events unfolding soon will lead gold back to where it belongs but of course a buy above the levels that I posted yesterday is a good one and so does the sell, presently I am in no man’s land. One problem however with our thread is that we look things from a very fundamental perspective and than try to trade futures at the same time, this dichotomy of long-term view and short term span I have covered with long term averaging style of investment, a low is only a point where I will find a possible accumulation for new highs sometime in future. It is only helpful if bets are within means, as I have always say you may see your levels back if the strategy is well grounded and not too much leveraged. It does look little weirdo, but the little self satisfaction to trade from a perspective of knowing events below the surface has always helped me in a long run, like I never will stay short in market where GDP is growing at plus 5% although consumer confidence is less than expected, I will define it yesterday economic releases as a ‘robust economy with cautious optimism’ is this not we always want non-inflationary growth, the economy is growing now solidly but investors and consumers do take notice of tanks and soldiers firing around in the world, the world as our backyard is our neighbourhood too, we are unwilling recipient of benefits and victims of events around us, we not living in an isolated globe, people pains distant they may sound are our problems too and that cosmic realisation has not yet sunk in the market, but I do see an orderly handling of a very complex business these kind of actions in 1914 and 1939 led to the great wars, no more now, murder of Austrian Empire heir led to the First big war and the second resulted from the ashes of the first, those who were disgraced wanted their honour back however events today are handled far more better, things do go out of hand and this 24 hour reporting of blood shed does appear to have a negative impact on most of us who do not have the ability and resources to see things in a fuller picture, that is another reason for very high level of volatility and action, we as traders should recognise that we should move within our means and keep our bets narrowed so that big events may not destroy our very stability. We are a part of a big global casino I yield, the only thing or advantage we can possibly have is to try to put stakes and odds in our favour. A long view is one such small step..