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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (57567)	4/27/2002 2:04:51 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99280

I previously posted the link to several patterns for seasonal, decennials, and presidential election cycle. Message 17352076

To: LTK007 who wrote (57567)	4/27/2002 9:14:49 AM
From: Win-Lose-Draw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

i have been "secretly" studying the events of late 20s to early 30s in detail how closely do recent fed actions track with fed actions from that era?

To: LTK007 who wrote (57567)	4/27/2002 10:10:20 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

The following comment was posted on my board on the FOOL There is so much hedging going on, and all these guys are leveraged to the hilt. Since they are hedged there is no risk? right?. NOOOOOOO! But if we get a real meltdown then please tell me WHERE IS ALL THE MONEY TO COME FROM to cover these hedges? This is a house of cards that has one single card at his basis. Take that card away and there will be NOTHING left. NOTHING!. ============================================================= My reply: The biggest hedgers I am aware of are: FNM FRE JPM Trillions and Trillions of $ in hedges. If something gets outside "normal" parameters they could pull an ENE and I am very very serious. Then we have the insurance industry, with co-insurance as a hedge. Crap. There are more hedges every way, every where, in more ways than I am aware. It was an unexpected move in Russia currency that collapsed LTCM and a stupid move by Greenspan (pouring trillions into the economy to save this shipwreck was start of a long series of stupid moves by HIM where he ought not have been meddling). Oddly enough LTCM was run by the guys that came up with the Black-Sholes option time decay and volatility methods by which options are still priced today. They thought they were perfectly hedged too. Well when a parameter takes an unexpected move outside the normal range and you have Trillions of $ worth of options, guess what happens? Everyone expects "Easy Al" to bail us out next time, well this mess is so big, that perhaps he will be unable. HIS warning about FNM (about the only thing he has said lately that has made any sense) has gone unheeded. The sheep are still grazing on that over-leveraged POS. Buffet bailed on his FNM and FRE over a year ago calling it over-valued. It is even more so today. I have no idea how many banks have currency hedges everywhere. Some strong unexpected move in: 1)the price of gold 2)the US$ 3)interest rates 4)foreign unexpected default, Brazil (my #1 candidate) or Japan perhaps 5)mortgage rates 6)Some sort of insurance disaster (default by a huge co-insurer perhaps) 7)Massive pullout of foreign investors out of US equities Can send this financial house of card collapsing in a heap of a mess. Not saying it will happen, but we sure as H are set up for quite a disaster if and when it does. The three companies above are strong candidates for disaster IMHO. M