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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (27428)	4/27/2002 1:57:19 PM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

The cover of Atlantic this month features Saddam Hussein. The cover article is excerpted here and includes an interview with the author (no mention of house to house fighting here): theatlantic.com What end do you foresee for him? Are there circumstances under which his own people would overthrow him without outside help? And how receptive would the Iraqi people be to assistance from the U.S. in eliminating Saddam and/or in setting up a successor government? My guess would be that Saddam will fall, probably fairly soon. He'll probably be killed by somebody in his inner circle. But it will be connected in some way to an American effort—in conjunction with American military strikes. That's just pure conjecture on my part, but that would be my guess. If the military people around Saddam were convinced that the United States was definitely going to invade, they would know they were going to be defeated. And since I doubt that there's really any intense personal loyalty to Saddam, I suspect that the people around him would not fight to the death to protect him, but rather would begin to maneuver to try and head off an American invasion and defeat by getting rid of Saddam themselves. So you don't think the United States will end up having to go after him? I don't think so. But we have to be ready to do it, and that has to be apparent to Iraq. We may even have to launch some strikes into Iraq, just to demonstrate that we are serious about getting rid of him. If we do that, I think he will be gotten rid o

To: LindyBill who wrote (27428)	4/28/2002 7:11:16 PM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 281500

Hi LindyBill; Re: "This is really a "pushover" situation once we are set up for it." It might be a pushover but it might not be. US military planners cannot be certain of this. Democracies have a tendency to not voluntarily begin wars unless they are fairly certain that they're going to win easily. Consequently, US military planners will make the assumption that it is not a pushover situation. Already they're making excuses for why it can't happen this summer. (Something to do with hot weather and chemical defensive gear.) By the end of the year it will be postponed again. The threat to invade Iraq, without the support of a significant ally in the region (preferably Saudi Arabia and Turkey), is not a real threat, but is just diplomatic language for "you really piss us off". -- Carl