As Elections for Governor Loom, G.O.P. Leaders Worry
By RICHARD L. BERKE
New York Times
April 29, 2002
MADISON, Wis. — Republicans' eight-year domination of governorships could end this fall, party leaders say, and they fear such a turn would carry serious consequences for other Republicans in November and hinder President Bush's re-election drive in 2004.
Many Republicans are even predicting that considerable losses for the party in November are inevitable, particularly in the Midwest, which for nearly a decade has been a stronghold for Republican governors.
Of the 36 governor's offices at stake this year, 23, or nearly two-thirds, are held by Republicans. Party officials concede that they could lose governorships in Michigan, in Illinois and here in Wisconsin. Polls show that Republicans also face daunting battles in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, New Mexico, Arizona, Kansas and Rhode Island — all states with Republican governors.
"We'll have a tough time keeping what we've got, there isn't any doubt," said Clinton Key, executive director of the Republican Governors Association.
The discouraging outlook for Republicans, who have the governorships of every major electoral powerhouse except California, stems partly from past triumphs. In 1994, when Newt Gingrich led Republicans to seize control of the House, they also swept a majority of governorships. In 1998, many of those governors were re-elected.
This year, some of them are not allowed to run again because of term limits. Some governors have moved to other jobs, including in the Bush cabinet. Still others who are seeking re-election face economic storms that could imperil their chances.
Some officials expressed fear that voters may have tired of Republicans who arrived in office with heady promises of reform. They also said some voters might question whether Republicans are the best qualified to address budget tribulations.
The states where polls show Democrats are most endangered are not considered particularly critical on the electoral map: Alaska, Hawaii and New Hampshire. In the race for the most prized governorship, that of California, the White House had backed a losing candidate in the Republican primary and party officials now say it will be difficult, but not impossible, to oust Gov. Gray Davis.
At the top of the list of endangered Republican incumbents, Mr. Key said, is Gov. Scott McCallum of Wisconsin, who moved up from lieutenant governor after Gov. Tommy G. Thompson resigned in February 2001 to become Mr. Bush's health and human services secretary.
First elected governor in 1986, Mr. Thompson had loomed as an enormously popular figure who had drawn sufficient support from moderates and Democrats to win re-election easily.
The climate is not so hospitable for Mr. McCallum. Many polls have shown him trailing likely Democratic opponents, although the most recent poll shows that he would run neck and neck with the two best known of his four potential Democratic rivals: Jim Doyle, the attorney general, and Representative Thomas M. Barrett. Moreover, Mr. McCallum's unfavorable ratings are higher than his favorable ratings.
In a sign of the uneasiness that has engulfed his organization, Mr. McCallum's two senior strategists and his chief fund-raiser quit recently, concerned about how the campaign was being run. A few days earlier, Mr. McCallum fired his chief of staff.
Republicans here so miss Mr. Thompson that some commissioned a poll to see how he would do if he quit the cabinet and ran again for governor against his successor.
"Just my luck," Mr. McCallum replied when asked in an interview if he felt cheated that he became governor at a time of economic crisis.
Since he was not elected in his own right, Mr. McCallum noted, he had no honeymoon with voters, the news media and the Legislature.
"Lieutenant governors are very low-visibility," Mr. McCallum said. "In my case, particularly," because of "a very active, very dominating governor." He was speaking in his high-ceilinged Capitol office, which is remarkably uncluttered, as if he were a temporary occupant — a marked change from when Mr. Thompson covered the office with stacks of papers and files accumulated over the years.
In 14 years in Mr. Thompson's shadow, Mr. McCallum, 51, who is most animated when chatting about coaching his children's sports teams, never established much of a political identity of his own. He and Mr. Thompson were not close, so the former governor never helped prepare his lieutenant to take over.
"With Thompson, he was never given anything substantial to do," said Don Kettl, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin. "It's the Republicans' worst nightmare: McCallum came in without name recognition, without a real record and on the heels of Tommy Thompson's popularity. And then he's facing all these problems."
Mr. McCallum inherited a budget deficit of more than $1 billion. He addressed it by proposing deep cuts in aid to local governments, infuriating municipal and county leaders. He defends his approach, saying he would not dare raise taxes.
Mr. Thompson would have faced similar budget difficulties if he were still governor, Mr. McCallum said, adding that his predecessor "said he would have made many of the same decisions I made."
Asked if Mr. Thompson would have enjoyed more good will from the voters, Mr. McCallum said he would not speculate, but added, "Maybe they'd be more open to say it's time for a change."
White House officials say they are focused on Wisconsin because Mr. Bush would stand a better chance of capturing this state in 2004 if there was a Republican governor whose state operation could help the ticket. The last Republican presidential contender to carry Wisconsin was Ronald Reagan in 1984. But White House officials say it is in reach: Al Gore barely won Wisconsin in 2000 with 47.8 percent, to 47.6 percent for Mr. Bush. That explains why Mr. Bush traveled here in February in one of his first fund-raisers since Sept. 11 to raise about $1 million for Mr. McCallum.
Mr. McCallum has responded to criticism from many Republicans that he initially surrounded himself with advisers who were not ready to run the state. Mr. Bush's advisers said they welcomed the governor's decision to install Darrin Schmitz as his campaign manager. Mr. Schmitz, a former Thompson aide, is close to the White House; he ran the Bush campaign in Wisconsin in 2000.
"He's had some relatively new and less experienced people and decided to make some changes," said Jim Klauser, a utilities executive who for years was Mr. Thompson's top adviser. Contrasting Mr. McCallum to his old boss, he said: "It's hard to follow in someone's footsteps. Remember the coaches that followed Vince Lombardi? It's not easy to do." Mr. Klauser added: "The next governor will be measured by how hard Tommy worked. He was everywhere."
Mr. McCallum is not quite as attuned to business of the state as his predecessor, and he was known for his regular afternoon basketball games when he was the No. 2. He said, "My mantra has been that if President Bush runs two hours a day, why shouldn't I be able to play basketball two times a week?"
As evidence of how little Mr. McCallum has to run on, his aides issued a roster of his accomplishments in 2001. But the first item on the list was that he "held three historic inaugural events," including "the first ever" in Fond du Lac and Milwaukee.
Democrats are savoring their opportunities. Gov. Parris N. Glendening of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Governors' Association, said his party was in a commanding position in part because of "just the serendipity of the numbers." But he said there were enormous implications because "with great deference to many U.S. senators, the states in the last two decades have been the incubators for future presidential candidates."
Reviewing the landscape, Mr. Glendening said: "We should regain a majority. The question is, how many? At minimum we should pick up four; at best seven."
Terry McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee, said of the governors' races: "That's going to be our greatest win this year. This is our biggest strategy for '04: winning governorships."
Mindy Tucker, the communications director of the Republican National Committee, who was an official in Mr. Bush's campaign, said she was worried that the party was more preoccupied with winning back the Senate.
Of the governors' contests, Ms. Tucker said: "This is an impossible task for us and not everybody is focused on it because they're spending so much time on the Senate. The Republican governors were a large force in the president's election in 2000 and would be in 2004. They're also important policywise because much of what we're doing on welfare and other things is returning power to the states." |
