Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: mishedlo who wrote (59414)	4/30/2002 8:28:40 PM
From: shoreco	Respond to of 99280

mish, May 7th also starts the FOMC meeting.....eom

To: mishedlo who wrote (59414)	4/30/2002 8:49:35 PM
From: ajtj99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Mish, the Fed is on May 7 also, so I think that cancels out CSCO. I can't remember what Freep said once, but I think it was that the 4th or 5th move after the Fed announcement is the real one.

To: mishedlo who wrote (59414)	4/30/2002 9:58:08 PM
From: Rich1	Respond to of 99280

Cycle guy has high the 12th... Not sure if today was low or not....

To: mishedlo who wrote (59414)	4/30/2002 10:36:58 PM
From: augieboo	Respond to of 99280

Mish, Shack says, This corrective up is starting to look a little less impressive. I am trying to determine if the initial move up today was 3 waves or 5, on the hourly it looks like 3. We could be building a low degree flat here, or perhaps the correction is over. But I am starting to doubt this is the beginnings of any large bounce. Message 17404605 To which Allans Alias replies: I did not think you ever thought it was the "beginnings of any large bounce". Message 17404670 And Shack responds, No I never thought it would go too far. But I though we may be looking at several days of up/sideways. Now I think this may end tomorrow. siliconinvestor.com

To: mishedlo who wrote (59414)	4/30/2002 11:22:11 PM
From: Shack	Respond to of 99280

I ain't no cycle guy mike. I do follow some fib time relationships but that's it. I also believe that there is something to anniversary dates for turns as you'll read below. In the intermediate term I am with you that we continue down for most of May. Strangely May 22 or so seems to mark turn dates in tech for the last few years. 1999 was low, 2000 was a low, 2001 was a high and I am betting 2002 is a low. In the very near term, bears seem to be waiting for slightly higher prices to short, and bulls have been buying the dip for a week and have called another interim bottom. So the market may once again screw everyone and solve this problem by just heading down right off the hop tomorrow. and we'll begin a more legit bounce from lower levels. I see big up in June. Puts are getting out of hand on the QQQ in June.

To: mishedlo who wrote (59414)	5/1/2002 8:12:10 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

M: Re: "I say Cycle high could easily be May 7." But a smaller possibiltiy exists that it could be a low. Re: "Of course that depends on what we do from now till then which is why I say screw cycles." This has nothing to do with cycles. It has everything to do with the tendency, for whatever reason, for any excesses in the market to correct going into the Fed. meeting. And so it is impacted by what has happened in the immediate past and not so much the future as you suggested. Here we are coming into the week with a monster oversold reading and so the call is that that excess will correct going into the FOMC and for the bias to be up. The FOMC umbrella start to impact the market with increasing significance starting tomorrow. The smaller possibility of a low has to do with the fact that the Tuesday "bottom" has a few days lapse until the Fed. meeting umbrella gains momentum into Friday's close. If we close down today with a high trin, odds would increase for the Fed. to be a local low. This a a lower probability event. Re: "MAY 7 is a key date." Fed. dates are often local pivot dates.