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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14414)	5/1/2002 2:02:53 PM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78594

i bought some L after the writeup in OID. i too may add a bit here and buy back my short calls. btw, there were some very interesting writeups today in the WSJ regarding WCOM. personally, i would not go long the stock with the bonds as distressed as they are. i might consider the bonds, though (if they get cheap enough).

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14414)	5/1/2002 3:01:21 PM
From: Wallace Rivers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78594

I've got a spec here with what I feel is an interesting risk/reward profile. Disclaimer: I currently own units at about these levels (mostly for income purposes), and have an order in to buy more slightly below the market (for total return). The ticker is SGH, these are senior subordinated units of Star Gas, the largest home heating oil distributor in the US. Because they are subordinate to the common units (SGU), the dividend can vary depending on performance, which is highly dependent on weather. Because we had a record warm winter, the dividend was cut from .575/Q (what SGU holders have received, and continue to receive), to .25 for this Q, and most likely the summer and fall Qs. IF, a big if, next winter's temperatures are more normal, the .575/Q dividend could return as early as Q1 '03. So, the primary risks IMHO are interest rate risk (if rates back up, the yield, currently north of 8.3%, becomes less attractive), and weather risk. If one thinks we will experience more normal temperatures next heating season, I think this is a good bet. If you believe in global warming, avoid. As a master limited partnership, these units have different tax characteristics than common stocks. Comments most appreciated. Wallace

To: Paul Senior who wrote (14414)	5/1/2002 4:58:06 PM
From: Allen Furlan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78594

Paul, noticed you posted on elnk thread a while back. Did you buy and what do you think of stock at current levels? Barrons had a favorable mention last issue. I am thinking of selling the Y2004 leaps at 5 strike for about a buck. Being assigned stock at net of $4 would be at about book value. Of course my bet is that options would expire in 18 months. The mathematics of this is that about $75 in margin support a $100 cash infusion. Reasonable value bet.