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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (163301)	5/1/2002 5:03:36 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 436258

you must mean the $ 800 B to dispose of badloans

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (163301)	5/1/2002 5:16:14 PM
From: Gut Trader	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Drug charts = socialized health care just around da corner. GT@EnemasRUs.butt

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (163301)	5/1/2002 8:33:28 PM
From: starhawke	Respond to of 436258

Anybody got a receipt? Sign on the wall says: "No receipt, no warranty. All sales final." S

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (163301)	5/1/2002 9:57:12 PM
From: Secret_Agent_Man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

There is no link to this article but it comes from www.freebuck.com - Great read and thoughts form a "banker." A Dutch Private Banker Sends His Thoughts The tulip is one of those examples of where man can go mad in his appreciation for things. The tulip during 1600 - 1637 was becoming extremely popular and at the height of this tulip mania one bulb cost EUR 2,100(recalculated to today’s prices). If I go to a Dutch farmer that's growing tulip bulbs, a so called bollenboer, then its very likely that I pay not more then EUR 0.50 per bulb, and perhaps double of that in a tourist-trap. It just shows how valuations can get out of hand and it happens THROUGHOUT the ages. …the downfall of Japan only started about 13 years ago and shows another classical example. We seem to deny what's happening there, but it is only something like 13 years ago that we regarded Japan as our model-economy. And look where it is now! Right now, many Europeans regard the US as their role model of a Cinderella economy (long lasting growth and low inflation). Will it last forever? I hope so, but the more realistic answer probably is NO. Mankind is bound to witness more of those great cycles. Only those that recognize it can make a profit out of it, and more importantly…not lose money in it! Too many people have been taught by modern asset managers that the markets do nothing but go up. Every downtick is a moment to buy some more shares. But those guys don't show us the troubles with the Nikkei. They don't tell their clients about the problems in Latin America. These guys were taught the spread-your-risks principles of Markowitsch. They know how to minimize risk versus a benchmark. But they forget that that same index can go down over a longer period of time. They however tell clients that on average one can expect about 10% annually if invested in a well-diversified stock-portfolio. The sky is the limit. I don't buy this and am predicting that private investors, in the years to come, will say goodbye to index investing (relative return investment) and will search for absolute-return investments. They will realize that their own goals in life are more important than tracking an index, and they will adjust their portfolios to it. But we need something that triggers this shift in awareness…. It has to come from… a decline in the dollar and by declining real interest rates. Economic trouble is mounting, especially in the US. It looks like we might see those things happen within the next few years. We will witness a renewed interest in gold. It already is happening right now. In technical analysis, when using momentum-strategies, gold is seen heading to $400 this year (this comes from a US technical analysis firm). Right now I keep on serving my clients as well as I can. But I still have to work within the framework of my firm, who believe in the 10%-for-ever dogma. I'm trying to reduce risks within the boundaries I have and also try to convince my colleagues to take an open stance toward the future. Put down those index-related glasses and take a look at the bigger picture. It doesn’t look too rosy. A tulip is better? Have a great weekend. Bart F, Amsterdam, Holland