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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (6261)	5/2/2002 12:15:32 PM
From: A.J. Mullen	Respond to of 52153

Thanks Peter, my interest is due in part to the economics paper you posted six months or so ago, rekindled by a subtitle of Leader in the most recent Economist: "America's huge external deficit is an accident waiting to happen." Ashley

To: Biomaven who wrote (6261)	5/5/2002 7:58:55 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

Peter & IJ, I think we will start to see these stocks recover shortly (hope springs eternal). If they do, which of two categories of stocks do you believe will outperform the most? Those that have been comparatively strong in the face of this "biotech perfect storm" like SCIO, GILD or IGEN or those that have lost the most in percentage terms such as SEPR, PDLI and IMCL. Any thoughts on how to play the coming recovery will be appreciated. Regards, David

To: Biomaven who wrote (6261)	5/5/2002 9:32:39 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 52153

IMO biotechs have clearly hit the value investor radar screen. Further, sentiment: Message 17422386 has gotten so lopsided that I'm betting very big now that at minimum a substantial trading rally is in the works, and maybe more. Obviously there has been some big fund outflows and the specialists don't appear to be making much of a market. I'm using McCamant's MTSL to get the right exposure to the technology (he provides extensive pipeline commentary)and then apply my own valuation work. Right now it's truly a Graham and Dodd exercise, and that's very unusual for this sector. I doubt if they've ever been cheaper. Catalyst? A new FDA? Not likely, but seriously how about a drug approval or two out of them. Or even a commissioner? It could happen, as after all the well being of millions is at stake. There will be some significant drugs coming out of this list. To ballpark the "real option value" of a new high margin drug, I assign a rough "post-bubble" MC factor of five times sales. Most of the names I use still have solid treasuries and advanced pipelines, and they all have nominal TVs in relation to options value. Thumbnails: (note some of pipeline info may be slightly dated, as progress is regularly recorded). Would suggest MTSL for timely coverage. bioinvest.com ICOS: 60.00m shares out @ 25.08= MC (market cap) 1.504b -Net Working Cap (NWC) of 433m = Technology Value: 1.071b, plant (p): 20m Phase III: Cialis for erectile dysfunction, Pafase for severe sepsis, Sifaxsetan for hypertension. Full plate of phase I's. AVAN: 58.0m out @ 1.74= MC 100m - 38 NWC= 62m TV III: rotavirius vaccine with GLX III: cholera vaccine II: cholestral vaccine also involved with defense dept anti-terrorist vaccine work CEGE: 35.6 out @ 12.56= MC 447m - 191 NWC = 256m TV, p: 55m II: GVAX for about six cancers, CG for three cancers, full preclinical slate INSM: 32.9 out @ 2.72= MC 89- 43m NWC = 46 TV II: type 2 diabetes, II: polycystic ovary syndrome, II: diabetes, insulin control CRXA: 41.1 out @ 5.23= MC 215m - 28 NWC= 187m TV p: 40m III- Bexxar and 9 other II and III prospects. IMGN: 39.8 out @ 8.00= MC 318m - 138 NWC= 180m TV, p: 5 TAP (antibody) technology ISIS: 51.8 out @ 11.88= MC 615- 170 NWC= 445 TV p: 36 big pipeline: two in III, seven in II, 4 in pre-clinical MAXM: 23.85 out @ 4.85= 115 MC - 136 WC= 0 TV (a "net net" as market is giving investor's the tech for zero, and throwing 20m cash for free) III: cephlene - melonomia, II: hep C, II: renal cell, III: leukemia RZYM: 20.0 out @ 1.43= 28 MC - 45 MWC= O TV, p: 4 another net net, tech for zero, 17m cash for free. MDCO: 34.6 out @ 9.21= 318 MC - 54 NWC= 264 TV has an approved cardiology drug called Angiomax, that is being marketed. Anticipated 2002 rev: 40m, possible 200m plus target. IDEV: Message 17355945 I also purchased hybrid pharma/advance bio Elan @ 10.83 Two non-McCamant picks of mine in the genome sector, which IMO has overshot on the downside: HGSI: 128.3 out @ 15.36= MC 1.970b- 1.203 NWC= 767 TV, p: 101 large early stage clinical effort, expect to send several a year into trials. CRGN: 48.8 out @ 8.32= MC 406 - 318 NWC= 88 TV early stage clinical effort with a number of key pharma partners (Bayer) paying for research.