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To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (39347)	5/2/2002 2:45:44 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

Actually I did buy more. I'm not worried about buying a company like Oracle during panic selling. The company is the irrefutable market leader in databases. They aren't going out of business just because nervous traders on Nasdaq are dumping their stock on May 2, 2002 at 1:30 p.m. Is 8.50 the bottom? I don't have a clue, but it isn't going to 0. An investment philosophy known as dollar cost averaging went by the wayside when all the day trader "gurus" cropped up during the bull market of the 90s. Dollar cost averaging into a quality company like ORCL, which is being dumped into oblivion without regard for the company's fundamentals, is a good idea in my opinion. Technically, the volume in ORCL is above average. If it rallies, it could signal a volume reversal. We'll see how it ends the day. I don't have time to reply to your message on the other thread right now. Have a nice day, Dan

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (39347)	5/2/2002 5:00:16 PM
From: DanZ	Respond to of 53068

Ok, ORCL closed at 8.55 and traded at about 8.62 after hours. The low was 8.15. I can think of three ways to play this stock from the long side. 1. Take a full position at a single price and wait for rationality to return. 2. Take a partial position every 50 cents or 75 cents or whatever cents on the way down and wait for rationality to return. 3. Sit on the sidelines and wait for the chart to give you a buy signal based on whatever criteria you use. I ignored the shorting options. In my opinion, you would just be gambling that the momentum will continue and take it lower. This is the converse of what momentum buyers did during the bull market. During the bull run in Internet stocks, I said I wouldn't touch them because they were way overpriced and I wasn't about to be the last fool to buy. I missed out on some gains in the short term, but I'm still here to live another day. You may not like Oracle in particular, but I am interested in your strategy in general. Which option would you prefer if you wanted to take a long position, or do you have another one? My preference is 2,3,1 in that order, although I would opt for 1,2,3 in that order if I was only going to take a small position. If you prefer option 3, when would you buy the stock? I realize that with option 2, I might have to hold longer than you find desirable, but that in itself doesn't make it an unreasonable approach. Nobody, and I mean nobody knows when ORCL or any other stock will turn around. You can look at charts until you are blue in the face and you still won't know. One problem that I see with option 3 is by the time the stock gives you a buy signal, it might be near a short term top. There are drawbacks to buying on the way up and the way down. By the time you decide to buy, I might be selling to collect some profit. If you buy near a short term top, you will either have to wait until it recovers or take the loss. Also, the length of time that you are willing to hold is a factor in your strategy. I am willing to hold ORCL until it recovers, but I don't think it will take very long considering where it closed today. If it happens faster, I'll just take my profit faster. If I have to hold a few weeks or months, no big deal. I'll just trade around my "core" position.

To: Kelvin Taylor who wrote (39347)	5/2/2002 11:21:28 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

Here's another comment on ORCL that was on the wire today. Oracle (ORCL) gave up 10 percent to $8.55 after Lehman Bros. said the company has a "low" likelihood of meeting fiscal fourth-quarter expectations. Analyst Neil Herman lowered his fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year profit and sales outlook, citing pricing pressures, continued employee exits and a tough industry climate. But he kept his "buy" rating due to the stock's "limited" downside and "significant" upside potential once the economy improves.