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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (10351)	5/2/2002 2:34:18 PM
From: Dale Knipschield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Robert, Thanks, I understand what you're saying, but I feel that CYMI has gotten way ahead of itself and the rest of the market. The amount of industry overcapacity appears to be fairly extensive to expect CYMI to start a run in the near future. I expect that the semiconductor producers themselves will be the first beneficiaries of the next cycle, as they use their idle capacity (or that of others) to ramp up production. That should be a sweet spot for profits. When additional equipment is required, it will be the equip makers turn. Of course, I am discounting ongoing upgrading in my scenario, but I suspect that is all that is keeping the equip makers afloat right now. Regards, Knip

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (10351)	5/2/2002 7:52:49 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

I reiterate my belief that virtually all of the semi equips will break sept lows before this bear is over. Look at your P/S ratios with current prices and see how ridiculously expensive these things are. I do agree with you about CYMI. It isn't a buy now, but it is one stock that may not break it's sept lows.

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (10351)	5/3/2002 5:55:28 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Interested in your comments on CYMI. They make the lasers for modern photolith tools. They have two major competitors Gigaphoton and Lambda-Physik. The data I have has CYMI with 70%+ of the market. I was employed in the semi manufacturing business and weathered several downturns. 1978 onwards. If the usual things happen, overcapacity will eventually see shutdowns, and the semi equips will have a very hard time of it (if the normal pattern is followed). Surviving semi companies will use volume production with low manufacturing costs with minimum profit as a survival tool. This means "consumables" will be consumed. Interesting to note that the lasers are a "consumable". CYMI is into service contracts too. yahoo.marketguide.com They might survive well during the uncertain times ahead. When chips are flooding the market at almost below cost, they will be making steady money imho. (It's already happening / happened) Service contracts will be an important survival factor for the semi equips. Service contracts were not around much before the 90's. The technology complexity increase over the last 10 yrs has mandated them. Something I have not factored in as yet.