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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rock_nj who wrote (60806)	5/2/2002 6:34:37 PM
From: farkarooski	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

yes, yes, and yes ... Nasdaq below 1000 in 3 months !!!

To: Rock_nj who wrote (60806)	5/2/2002 6:37:02 PM
From: westpacific	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Yes, all of these could be cut in half and still be expensive!!!! This is going to take time, the bear is in no rush. But remember one rule in a bear market. It always ends at incredible bargins, prices that will blow your mind. We are not even there yet, did you think EMC would be at $8, ORCL at $8, CIEN at $7, JNPR at $9 a year or so ago. Well wait one more year and have your cash ready! Because if you do and buy the bottom you have won the lottery!

To: Rock_nj who wrote (60806)	5/2/2002 6:44:11 PM
From: Bocor	Respond to of 99280

>>Do you really think that demand for tech products is going to fall that much from already very depressed levels to warrant such low valuations? >> Low valuations? Check out the valuation even at these levels of SUNW, XLNX,TXN,BRCM,EMC,EMLX,BRCD and lets not even begin to address the valuation of the biotechs.... Will demand fall much farther? Maybe not, and maybe indeed demand will begin to pick up. The real question is the valuation. With SUNW having 3 BILLION shares out there, EMC 2 BILLION shares out there, how much better does demand have to get before the valuation gets attractive? Seems that is the question.

To: Rock_nj who wrote (60806)	5/2/2002 7:44:58 PM
From: orkrious	Respond to of 99280

Do you really think that demand for tech products is going to fall that much from already very depressed levels to warrant such low valuations? you're serious, right? low valuations? look again. look at the P/S ratios of some of the semi companies. [edit] I see others have said the same thing

To: Rock_nj who wrote (60806)	5/2/2002 7:45:44 PM
From: augieboo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

Rock, I'm not a super-bear, or even a non-super-bear. I only play the long side, so I DESPERATELY want this market to go UP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! But, you have to keep in mind that most of these companies split multiple times during the past few years. I don't have any figures in front of me, but I bet that if you adjusted backward, i.e., "unsplit" some of these stocks, you'd find that they are still much, much higher than they were pre-bubble. Sure, the idea of CSCO at $5 just sounds and feels ridiculous, but keep in mind that despite the fall in it's stock price, CSCO is still up 17,555.37% since it's IPO in 1990. If you had purchased one share of CSCO on IPO day for $22.25, you would now have 232.99 shares worth $3,177.97. So, if CSCO were to lose another 2/3 of it's share price, i.e., fall from today's close of $13.64 to $4.55, it would still be up 5851.77% since its IPO. investor.cisco.com investor.cisco.com; Now let's look at the company's income. In GAAP terms, in FY2000, they earned $0.36 per share, in 2001, they lost $0.14 per share, and in 2002 thus far, they have earned $0.05 per share. Right now, their projected PRO-FORMA FY2002 earnings are only $0.32 per share, and for FY2003 it's $0.47 per share. earnings.nasdaq.com What are their projected GAAP earnings for those years? WHO THE FICK KNOWS? My point is, when you start crunching numbers on these companies you find out that just because their share price seems really low does not mean they are now undervalued, or even fairly valued. On a real earnings basis, many if not most techs are still big, fat, bloated piggies. augie