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Pastimes : Thoroughbred Horse Racing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (197)	5/3/2002 2:42:59 PM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1269

Here's my thoughts on the Derby. I agree with the consensus view that it's really difficult to come up with a horse that doesn't have some kind of flaw in it's profile going into the Derby. There's a question mark related to seasoning, stamina, ability, running style, or training method for everyone in the race. I don't like Came Home at 1 1/4 even though I think he has the most ability. He will probably be over bet. Harlan's Holiday is a slight question mark at the distance and has been running primarily in prep races that came up very slow. He will probably be over bet. Johannesburg has not been prepped properly. I am tossing him. If he wins, they can have him. He will probably be over bet. Blue Burner and Saarland have a nice style and profile, but haven't shown quite as much ability as some of the others yet. I am curious, but would need a big price. Medaglia d'Oro has shown plenty of ability but is lacking seasoning. I am interested, but would need a decent price. War Emblem ran a legitimately huge race last out, but is suspect at 1 1/4 when placed under pressure on the font end. I am interested, but would need a huge price and would not be shocked to see him get buried. Essence of Dubai seems well prepped, has already handled 1 1/4 and beat a nice horse last out, but it still a little bit of a mystery based on his US form from last year. I am interested but would need a price. I think the Spiral Stakes is being slightly overrated. I don't totally hate Perfect Drift and Request for Parole, but they may be overrated in the betting. Private Emblem ran OK last time, but has backed up in the stretch going shorter. I have to question him at the distance given he hasn't shown more ability than the others to begin with. Not impossible, but I will pass. Castle Gondolfo has handle the distance and gets Baily, but I will pass on insufficient info and not enough preparation. I could go on. So let me cut to my one insight that could be of some value. EVERYONE hates the Santa Anita Derby horses because the Beyer figure came up very slow and because they were crawling during the last 1/8 mile. I have examined that field and those horses to death and I have come to the conclusion that those horses aren't as bad as conventional wisdom indicates. I still don't like Came Home at 1 1/4 miles. I also don't think that either Easy Grades or Lusty Latin have shown as much ability as some of the major contenders. In fact they have show less. However, I feel certain they are somewhat better than everyone thinks. At a huge price, I expect to play around with them in the exotics with other contenders than are going off at value prices. Good Luck All