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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (146874)	5/4/2002 8:02:40 AM
From: TGPTNDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573695

Mani, Re: <These stocks are not dot-bombers> Yes. Exactly. I've been looking at nearly that same list. (Add one, take away WCOM, but it's getting so cheap how can one not buy a K or so?) My quick takes: PRGN Yes WCOM Not Yet, but soon. The bonds look yummy! NT Yes JDSU Yes LU Yes But the economy IS going into the hopper(IMO). Infrastructure is the last thing you invest in when the tide's going out. All these companies are serious infrastructure companies -- with the exception of prgn. Big $ investments to produce revenue flow. My guess is that equal $ amounts across your list will pay off at over 10%/year compounded for the next 20 years. And that ain't hay. Why aren't you running a mutual fund? tgptndr

To: Mani1 who wrote (146874)	5/4/2002 6:02:44 PM
From: tejek	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1573695

It is amazing! These stocks are not dot-bombers, they used to blue chips. I know we all gotten used to hearing about these huge free falls, but the magnitude and severity of this fall is breath taking. These are not etoys and pets.com, they used to be "must owns" for any "prudent investor". Mani, part of the problem is all but PRGN were pigs during the telecom boom. By the time the boom was over, there was so much inventory in the channels, things were backed up all the way to Asia. And now that inventory has come down some and there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel, the major problem facing these companies is debt.......they are staggering under mounds and mounds of debt. I just took a flyer on Friday and bought some WCOM to play the bounce.......[I may regret that move given WCOM's action near the end of the day]..........but WCOM is a typical example......it has 92 billion dollars in long term debt. And so, in spite of the fact the sucker is flowing cash, and I mean netting cash and not EBITDA positive, its at $1+. The rest of them also have a huge debt load and are not anywhere close to netting income. I don’t know how I have been able to stay away from such stocks, but doesn’t it make sense to take a risk here? Who am I kidding, I don’t have the guts anyway. I am going with GLW........I have some in my 401 at $8 and $10 and plan to pick up more after D.Ray convinced me recently that it can handle its debt load. That's the only one of the 5 you posted that I would go near long term if for no other reason than its been around for a hundred years, unlike the others. The other two that I am buying for my 401 is CIEN and JNPR......they too are well run companies that are struggling right now but without GLW's debt load. And I love the talk that CSCO is stealing market share from JNPR but no one checks to see how its doing it.......CSCO's receivable turnover rate has worsened in the past two quarters and now its considerably above the industry ave. while surprise, surprise, JNPR's has remained below the ave. CSCO is not winning share because of a better product but because they don't hassle about the payments. Leaning towards RBAK and MRVC.http://finance.yahoo.com/q?h=1&s=rbak+mrvc&d=v1 Both got lots of money and extensive IP. I will rely on you to tell us when to enter those two........you know I don't trust MRVC in spite of the fact the stock bought you a house.....which I will always hate you for. But I don't know how you can think of a MRVC when CIEN is at $6 and JNPR at $9? BTW what chips are you looking at...I like SYXI, VTSS, SIMG, CNXT....liking AMD and PMCS more and more as well. ted