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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tony who wrote (2545)	5/7/2002 1:32:06 PM
From: Beachside Bill	Respond to of 306849

<differences of the animals?> 1.In 1989 homebuilders had speculative housing on their books, 2002 homebuilders have between 1/2 to a year of backlog. Most don't build spec anymore and the one's that do don't build much. 2.Demographics have changed with total population growing faster than previously predicted back in 1998 thanks to the elderly living longer and other factors. We now have the widest gap of population to housing ever. 3.shortages of approved building lots that are harder to get for various reasons making it very hard on the independents. I just put a roof on and 3 of the 6 roofers who gave estimates were builders who gave up homebuilding game. These are some of differences of the animals

To: tony who wrote (2545)	5/8/2002 3:57:52 PM
From: David Jones	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

In 89 there was an over supply of units. A recession that put people out of work starting in the rust belt and sweeping across the country east to west. Consumers just stopped buying, period. My state California seen a marked drop in population. As I recall a 0 growth or close to it. Unemployment was in the 11% range and higher. When it hit there was no mistaking we were in it up to our @ssess. This recession is no comparison. There's no large amounts of migration to find work as there was in 89. Moneys comparatively cheap and jobs are there for those willing to take the pay offered. There's no comparison, the first was a financial catastrophe personally the latter hardly a bother.