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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (12084)	5/7/2002 1:27:36 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

JT, those levels look appetizen -g- while they don't seem to be buying enough puts we are quite near the asset levels of late feb Message 17133400 thanks JT.

To: J.T. who wrote (12084)	5/8/2002 12:02:04 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Tuesday, May 7th, 2002: ************* Money Market 1.701 BILLIONBULLISH Double Overbought ************* Regular Series: (100% Correlation to Index (Nova 150%)) SPX Long - NOVA 211.3 MillionBULLISH SPX Short- URSA 302.7 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought NDX Long - OTC 607.9 MillionBULLISH Triple Oversold New 3 1/2 Year Low NDX Short- ARKTOS 160.8 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought Highest TA Since 05/26/2000 ********** Dynamic Series: (200% correlation to Index) SPX Long - TITAN 104.4 MillionBULLISH SPX Short- TEMPEST 183.4 MillionBULLISH NDX Long - VELOCITY 130.9 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold Lowest TA Since 10/18/01 NDX Short- VENTURE 255.9 MillionBULLISH Double Overbought Near All Time highs Sector Funds: XAU Precious Metals 75.3 Million XOI Energy 38.9 MillionBULLISH OSX Energy Services 80.6 MillionBEARISH Overbought BKX Banking 50.8 Million BTK Biotech 164.6 MillionBULLISH Triple Oversold Near 3 1/2 Year Low RUT 2000 - MIKROS 121.8 MillionBULLISH RLX Retail 30.8 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold Telecommunications 5.1 MillionBULLISH Double Oversold *************************************** We had the multi-swing reversal, but in typical post Fed announcement, the market sold the rally into the bell for a minor loss in the SPX and NDX and COMP with DOW up. Key for my read is BKX holding BKX 858 death support. I have stated any break of this level would create the panic sell to 835-840 area and SPX lower band assault to SPX 1,036 - 1,038 before reversal. Today BKX 863.55, with little to no wiggle room for downside melt possibility, gapped upside open to BKX 870.83 and printed an intraday high of BKX 877.31 and promptly sold into the bell closing at the bottom tick BKX 863.52 to close the gap. Most importantly though, BKX 858 held firm. Now tonight we get the spark that starts the melt-up fire with CSCO beating earnings. The reality is, CSCO is nothing more than an excuse for the market to rally from deep oversold levels combined with extreme Bearish sentiment from my Bullish perspective. Factor in the macro-economic picture that is coming together and the micro delivery of corporations cleaning up balance sheets and increased visibility going forward and the Monster rally stage is set. DVDW puts forth a solid hypothesis that supply of stock has shrunk immensely and short selling adds fuel to the fire. The DOW, BKX, RUT are right at or below oversold levels on 5 day RSI and have been relatively strong weathering this latest Bear assault. This of course excludes the XAU which has been on a tear prior to todays 2.7% pullback. XAU is now neutral, but ready to roll over and have a serious assault at a meaningful pullback. The SPX and OEX are below double oversold levels, and COMP, NDX, SOX, MSH, BTK and IIX are right near triple oversold levels on 5 day RSI test. DOT brings up the caboose well below triple oversold levels. Combine deep oversold levels with extreme Bearish Sentiment in Rydex, Consensus, Market Vane, Timers Digest, Extreme CBOE Index Put Buying and NYSE Members under massive accumulation and who continue to suck up supply of stock like a Kirby Vacuum sucks up dirt and you have a tinderbox ready to explode. Economic data continues to come out with 5.8% GDP growth and 8.6% productivity growth and labor costs down 5.4% that gets tossed in the dustbin by Bears and now the tables get turned. The question now becomes once we gap open to the upside is it a breakaway gap that doesn't get filled until the end of the world like the unfilled gap on January 17th, 1991 the morning we opened after we bombed the f* out of Iraq the evening before? Is it a gap that gets filled after the first hour and a half of trading? Will BKX hold the line at BKX 858 and allow the rocket to launch to the moon? In addition to the reasons above, this list previously posted summarize why I believe the stage has been set and the lows are in: 1)Dollar is putting in lows. Elasticity toward either side of 114 and reversal. It is Triple oversold on 5 day RSI. More stringent test 21 day RSI right above oversold. Without US growth and consumption, the spillover to asian markets ala Korea, Taiwan and Japan wouldn't be thriving like they are... 2)Inventory rebuilds are on the mend, albeit slowly. The market looks forward not backward. Forward earnings are going to be easy comparisons to beat. 3)Earnings estimates are low-balled right now. The majority of any estimate revisions are going to be adjusted and ratcheted higher going forward. 4)VIX trading range is going to get crushed over the next 12-18 months. High teens are going to be commonplace... if not too high. Today is a telltale sign.. VIX 23.05 close. You are correct on II; but in aggregate Rydex, MV and consensus are closing in on september lows in many ways. 5)You got real capitulation into September lows. It blew 87 and 29 crash capitulation levels as measured by unheard of quintuple oversold RIS levels and record CBOE E/I Put Call ratios. We continue to have high ratios not uncommon in the .8 - .9 range and occasionally closes above 1. Capitulation has hit the bigs last... GE, IBM, QCOM, MSFT adnauseam. They have been left for dead when the bigs are hit last and the smalls and mids are in healthy uptrends... nowhere to go but UP. 6)Good News is NOT PRICED in. Got GDP Growth today? What happens if news hits tomorrow that bin laden is DEAD? Got MELT-UP? Got the mother of all SQUEEZE Plays? Bad news is well priced in. It is priced at a premium. 7)Credit levels are improving. We are well past the midpoint of bad news. The market looks ahead and sees the light at the end of the tunnel. From the bottom up, companies are cleaning up balance sheets are they will be next on the firing line. 8)This argument of trade imbalance and US Gov't trade imbalance has been perpetuated since the 80's. It has been tossed into the dust bins. I got real good 80's reference here, but I am not much interested in econ academia. 9)Point well taken on tech stocks. But tech stocks have no clear forward earnings visibility RIGHT NOW. They will have much clearer visibility within 2 qtrs. The market looks out 2-3 quarters (6 -9 months). Tech is clearly oversold and now is a good time to buy the right tech stocks. A case by case basis. 10)DOW is in defined uptrend. Still 2000 points off the bottom. RUT higher. SPX right on support. Monday reverses UP. COMP ala tech V-shaped reversal dead ahead off these lows. And my fav... BKX still 85 + points above my magic number. BKX 868 now... We will see BKX take out 1,000 by the end of THIS YEAR. 11)Many are still confused how I use Rydex and Bullish tags. I refuse to divulge rydex analysis to the public since many only want to discredit rydex as a sentiment tool. Nobody was talking about rydex sentiment day in day out on Silicon Investor until MITA commenced day in day out repetition. Now it is talked about everyday. I give credit where credit is due and have noted in the archives where the credit for this idea commenced. My trading in rydex will improve, and in spite of all my shortcomings I finished a Bear year in rydex UP. I will finish this year positive and outperform the major indices, just like last year. 12)Market liquidity is now well buffered by strong public short positions. Supply of capital stock has shrunk immensely because of disappearing acts of worthless paper that never had any value. Y2K overbuild has almost fully worked its way thru the system. The market looks forward, and 6-9 months this build-out will be in expansion mode. Regular Series: 100% Long NDX OTC Dynamic Series: 100% SPX Long TITAN Best Regards, J.T.