To: Joe Stocks who wrote (39400 ) 5/7/2002 8:02:33 AM From: DanZ Read Replies (2) | Respond to Nobody knows if they are buying on the way up until the market moves up and proves that they bought on the way up. How much does a stock have to rally before you believe that a bottom is in? Let's use ORCL for an example. If it rallies to 9, will you think a bottom is in? How about if it rallies to 11? How about if you wait until it gets to 16? Let's say you buy at 11 and that is the top for a while and it pulls back to 9? My plan is to buy ORCL (and other stocks) at a price that I think is reasonable, and sell as it goes up. If it keeps going down I'll buy more. As I said, I wouldn't do this with ANY stock. Can I lose money? Sure, but you if aren't willing to take a risk, you shouldn't buy stocks. The idea is to buy at a time when you think you have a good risk/reward. The risk is never 0. Anyone that knows me can attest to the fact that I am a proponent of technical analysis. However, I have never used technical analysis to predict stock prices, nor do I think anyone can predict stock prices with any degree of consistency. Nobody knows when ORCL will make a bottom. Nobody knows if will pull back after it rallies X points. Now I would agree that ORCL isn't trading near any recent support and I couldn't call it a buy from that perspective. However it is a buy based on my belief that the decline it has suffered in the last few weeks, coupled with the decline that the Nasdaq has suffered in the last few weeks, are not sustainable in the short term. Thanks for your comments. We disagree. <g>
