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To: Shack who wrote (38276)5/7/2002 10:46:13 PM
From: marginmike  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 209892
 
well then thats scarry maybee its the bottom-g-



To: Shack who wrote (38276)5/7/2002 11:08:38 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 209892
 
Which is why the only reasonable strategy is to short the first pop, say, tomorrow, with a 1/3. At this time, also unload at least half of any clown longs (that are most likely fairly deep underwater as of today's close). If it continues to run, add another 1/3 short and unload any remaining longs. When you begin to doubt that you are right, add the last 1/3 short. After that, there is no leeway -- the stop is set.

In any case, the chances are quite good that the turn will happen before you lay on the last third, unless one of your faults is not being patient.

I say all this because we know that here we will get one of two surprises: a shallow rally or one that makes the bulls get just a little cocky and the bears begin to doubt.

I can think of no other reasonable strategy, but I am open to suggestions.