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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (12152)	5/8/2002 9:00:55 PM
From: nsumir81	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Check other (many) popular names too. Thought you'd highlight the Dow. Nobody is shouting DOW 6K or 1K. (not me at least) Moving averages longer term are still rolling over. Even the S&P. Anyway. Que sera sera.

To: bobby beara who wrote (12152)	5/8/2002 11:19:39 PM
From: Dan Duchardt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Not that it is indicative of the future here, but once a stock or index has lost substantially more than half its value in about a years time, it is impossible for it to continue to decline at the same linear rate for another year. In $$ lost per day on average, declines have certainly slowed, but in percentage terms the rate has not slowed all that dramatically. A more appropriate look at the bigger picture, given the magnitude of the losses involved, is a log scale plot like this one for the NDX. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyyay[df][pc200][vc60]&pref=G Your point about things going up for periods of time is well taken, and certainly there are individual issues that have leveled off more than others, but this chart shows that on a percentage basis the trend for Nasdaq 100 has been persistently downward for the last two years. And lets not forget that many of the weakest stocks in the index were thrown out and replaced by stronger performers. I'd be perfectly happy to see this bounce reach an equal or higher high than the last major one in December, but until that happens the downtrend is intact. At least we now have something that looks like it might be a higher low, but then many of us thought that back in February and instead have now witnessed a 33% decline in less than 4 months. Today put a nice dent in that, but if you've been holding the index all this year you are still pretty far under water. Dan