Hello Elmat, Dateline May 10th, 2002 Moscow Marriott Tverskaya Hotel -
I am an expert on Russia now, having flown low over some green fields dotted with houses, rode on some roads leading to the hotel, and lifted by its elevator to the room.
Observation: I had to go through the Red Line customs channel because of the cash I was carrying, and the printed material my partner was lugging. No custom officers staffed the Red Channel. I just remembered that no one at the Beijing airport had checked my passport for presence of visa to Russia. These facts, taken together, give a new meaning to the concept of freedom.
I intend to transform my USD cash to Russian Czar-era gold coins and perhaps an precious metal Easter Egg during the trip.
The hotel is one of three Marriott properties in Moscow, beautiful little building with about 160 rooms. A large German couple was complaining at the front desk that their regular room was too small. Our regular room, being the same size as theirs, is enormous, by Hong Kong standard. Walt Disney World theme song went something like, ‘oh, it is a small world after all …’. I do not suppose the song would go well if changed to, ‘oh, it is a relative world after all …’.
As noted, I had made some dramatic shuffling in my portfolio recently, and to keep score, I disclose my allocation:
Cash 45% (37% Euro, 6% CHF, 19% AUSD, 3% HKD, 35% USD) - made a large thread documented move from CHF to AUD. I am distressed to have to
(a) keeping so large a percentage of NAV in cash (unlike Maurice, who just discovered the joys of unrewarding cash), thus
(b) necessitating me to flip flop amongst the currencies, aiming to show an absolute USD denominated return.
I just had an idea on how to boost my return for the year - I can switch my accounting currency from USD to Argentine Peso, and immediately chortle over a 300% return YTD:0)
But then, in the longer run, there is probably not much difference between USD and Peso, except that the Peso will strengthen against the USD:0(
Physical gold and platinum metals 6% (80/20 respectively)
Bonds 21% (staggered treasury strips; Asian and Euro bond funds)
Real Estate 23% (value at lower of cost and market, including 2 warehouse/commercial units next to old HK airport, US rental property, proportional equity in Thai beach resort land, and HK street-level shops surrounding large real estate project off Nathan Road)
High density Hong Kong is expecting an increase of population from current 6 mm to 8.x mm within 10 years, due 97% to immigration from the mainland. I am bullish on real estate in Hong Kong, and I am thankful that my home neighborhood has only one access road, is zoned for low density residential, and is constrained by infrastructure. I am doubly glad that my public beach has no public parking.
Equity 5% (AAPTY, AMGN, AOL, AU, AWK, BP, CHL, CMCSK, CWT, DROOY, HGMCY, NEM, RAD, SNE, SWC, XOM, Furukawa Electric, Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corp, CNOOC, Petro China, Sinopec,... )
I have these outstanding option positions:
Short NEM June Call 20 covered
Short SWC July Put 15
Long RDN August Put 40
Short NEM Sept Call 30 covered
Shot NEM Sept Put 25
Short SWC Oct Call 20 covered
Short HGMCY Nov Call 15 covered
My MS Money morgue has some shares that qualify me to receiving the annual reports: AIG, AMAT, AV, CSCO, EMC, INTC, JDSU, LU, MRK, MSFT, MOT, NOK, ORCL, PFE, QCOM, SFE, SUNW, T, WMT, YHOO, and in HK equity morgue - Citic Pacific, Harbour Ring Int'l, Hop Hing (edible oil trader/processor), Pacific Century Cyberworks, Phoenix Satellite TV, Softbank Int'l.
I do not have debt.
My NAV YTD appreciation @ 2.15%, well on track to an absolute wopper of 5% for 2002.
Reference earlier tally of order-of-battle:
Message 17360779
Message 17426435
The script is as before, namely global perpetual WAT, unilaterally financed with fiat paper, funneled through dysfunctional banking system, from Japan to the US, causing unproductively on the global stage and phantom productivity where people care to look, and absolutely wild kick-in-the-behind inflation of all matters necessary, and deflation of most things nice to have.
The international investor electorates are beginning to vote “no”, “bu”, “nyet” and thumbs down.
I understand Stanley Tools shareholders, presumably mostly onshore investors, has just voted. Stanley makes many of their goodies in China, selling most of their goodies in the US, will be relocating from good ol’ US of A to the Calypso Caribbean and Bacchanalian West Indies. I expect the US corporate tax laws to be changed due to the Stanley move. The US had changed its taxation laws after 190+ rich folks gave up their citizenship (tax all NAV as if sold at time of taking up alternate citizenship). It’s a relative world after all.
This posting is still relevant in my thinking …
Message 14861804
Chugs, Jay
P.S. No corporations will be moving to these parts, because they are lined up right behind the Axis of Evil, being Close-to-Evil:
Message 17437067
Syria
Message 17437072
Libya
Message 17437080
Cuba
A prediction, it will not be too long before we have another list of Circle-of-Pretty-Bad, starting with this make-belief country:
Message 17437055
Indonesia
All to be, preferably, resolvable and resolved through high-tech hyper productive robots …
Message 17449439
Even as matters go as demographically and mathematically inevitable elsewhere …
Message 17431274
All but richest near-retirees won't be able to quit working
By Mary Deibel, Scripps Howard News Service
May 3, 2002
Message 17432494
Stock slump saps public pensions
By Bloomberg News (Bloomberg News)
Tuesday, May 7, 2002 |
