To: Jane Hafker who wrote (10047 ) 5/9/2002 6:08:44 PM From: Maher Sid-Ahmed Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14451 From SGI web site: Recent Industry Analyst Coverage "Parallel improvements in bandwidth, new collaboration applications and combined hardware/software technologies such as Silicon Graphics' Visual Area Networking may enable improved global collaboration for technical end users. This may cause a shift in workstation-based work to countries with lower skilled labor costs or promote round-the-clock and accelerate the buildup of IT in emerging economies. Regional distribution of workstation sales could move from Western Europe and North America to Asia/Pacific, Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Latin America" Workstations Worldwide Forecast Summary, 2002-2006 -- P. Rieppo, Gartner Dataquest, March 2002 "As SGI generates new excitement around its unique workstation and visualization solutions, IDC believes it could dominate not only the specialized, high-end segment of the workstation space again but could also grow share in midrange markets where its scalable visualization systems are used at a departmental level." -- Kara Yokley, IDC, February 2002 There is great resemblance between AAPL as a turnaround story and SGI. AAPL had sales of $3.5 billion a quarter and losses exceeding $600 million. When the turnaround was complete AAPL sales dropped to $1.3 billion per quarter and earning was in the range of $200 to $300 million per quarter. AAPL went from a low of $12 which was equal to their cash per share at the time to a high of $150. AAPL now trades at $48-$50 taking split into account. SGI started the turnaround when their sales were in the range of $600 million per quarter and losses amounted to over $100 million per quarter. SGI now has sales of ~$320 million/quarter and are now close to break even. SGI dropped to as low as $0.30 (they did not have positive equity/share to set a limit on the slide). Share price rebounded when the market perception turned positive. Share price went as high as $4.85 and now settled back to a wait and see level of $2.50 to $2.80. AAPL share price during the initial stage of the turnaround moved all over the place - from $12 to $22 back to $16 to $32 back to $18 and finally climbed to $150. Those who did not prematurely sold their shares were handsomely rewarded: a potential investment of $36,000 in AAPL (assume you caught the bottom) returned as $450,000 (assume you sold at the top). Of course if you bought your shares at $30 or $20 and sold at $100 you got 3 to 5 times your money in a couple of years, which is still not a bad return. The million dollar question now will Bishop be able to complete this turnaround and convince the street that this is a money making business with potential growth? SGI has the potential to grow its business to $1+ billion a quarter and make it extremely profitable. However, based on what we have seen so far Bishop may not have the right skills to bring this company to were it should be, but then one can never really be sure. I am willing to wait another year on this investment to give Bishop ample time to prove himself.