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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (59440)	5/9/2002 6:18:17 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

John Enjoyed your post. Wireless is pretty much my professional background and I must admit some areas are very mature but many more are very, very immature. Spectrum is a problem for a lot of these new services and I'm hoping that the FCC can push HDTV in the butt and get it moving so we can free up some of that VHF and UHF spectrum for wireless apps. Just about everybody seems to be in chicken little land and I don't blame them. I see lots and lots of problems with wireless, range, quality of signal and especially interference limiting some of the first and second generation equipment but make no mistake this stuff is gonna be big....Really BIG! Sorry Shatner I had to steal your line.... I know that Cisco wants to play in this area and it's future potential is huge for them tieing it to IP. They just have to not dive headlong into this stuff. They sure have the management, engineering and money to leverage it. Eric

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (59440)	5/9/2002 6:20:11 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

My goodness, John. You were quite verbose today. You skip out on us and when you come back, you've become a Cisco convert, at the right price, of course. :) Interesting diatribe. Welcome back! You missed my brief foray into Cisco ownership. I bought one day thinking to go long the stock and sold the next day when it neared my expected price target for 3-4 months out. 17% return on my money in one day. What a crazy joke this market is. LOL. Anyway, here's to getting another buying opportunity in Cisco before the economy recovers. Cheers!

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (59440)	5/10/2002 12:08:04 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 77400

<<CSCO (the stock) a strong and compelling candidate for investment>> Did John Shannon post that, or was it someone else with the same name? I think you've taken a walk on the road to Damascus, and got struck by lightning. Talked to an angel. Your post is almost Exuberant. Although I sold some CSCO today and yesterday, I think the "window of opportunity" for buying CSCO, is closing. In the 9-10/01 dip, I could only see the abyss; couldn't see the other side. Now, I can. So, I think, we're talking months, not years, to get a LT position at "good" prices. And "good" is whatever the market will give me. I can come up with a lot of reasonable-looking yardsticks to measure "good price", but, if the market doesn't agree with me, then I'm wrong (no matter how clever or historically accurate I am). But, I'll try anyway to come up with a reasonable yardstick, this way: 1. valuing the company now, based on CY 2003 GAAP EPS 2. which will be $0.58. They made $0.10 this quarter, and I'm assuming an increase in the EPS, of 0.01/quarter, each quarter, from now on. These current guesses are higher than my previous guesses (made before the last earnings report). 3. CSCO PE should be in the general range it was before the Bubble, before 1998. Yes, it's a bigger company, and bigger companies inherently grow slower. But it is (I think, and you seem to, now, also) on the cusp of doing in telecom-equip, what it did in the mid-late 1990s, in networking for enterprises. And it has a longer track record, and a bit more cash, than it had in 1995. And inflation is lower, so higher PEs for everything are justified. So, very roughly, it balances out, and the PE range we saw in the mid-1990s is not unreasonable to expect, going forward. That's 25-50. This expectation doesn't require any Exuberance, does it? So, a PE of 25 times EPS of $0.58 equals a stock price of $14.50, which is a reasonable price to pay for CSCO. And, there is the fact that, in the frightful days of late September 2001, the stock only got as low as $11. And I don't think the market gets a reason to be that frightened again, not anytime soon. So, I'm a buyer, from $14.50 on down.