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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (59462)	5/10/2002 8:24:02 AM
From: Monty Lenard	Respond to of 77400

LOL...Jacob, don't get too excited. He had me wondering also until I read the next sentence. "Which wouldn't be completely Shannon if I didn't mention the words "at the right price". Which (still being me) I suspect is in the single digits. " Monty

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (59462)	5/10/2002 8:36:57 AM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Jake...>>>So, a PE of 25 times EPS of $0.58 equals a stock price of $14.50<<< Did CSCO ever have a PE of 25? Would not a historical average PE for CSCO be more meaningful? ...Jerome

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (59462)	5/10/2002 10:51:43 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

LOL... actually, I've been talking with a lot of Angels these days. Angel investors, that is. As far as pegging a buy range based on PEs, that's OK (as much as my skin crawls to call use of PE "ok"), providing one is comparing apples to apples. Back in '97, Cisco Classic had a PE in the range of 25-45 (or so) in a time when its revenue run rate was about 6 B$ and growing by 50% per year, and the blush of a bull run was beginning to loft tech equities across the board. Growing from 6 B$ to 20 B$ is one thing. Growing from 20 B$ to 70 B$ is another. Cisco Mark II essentially has to gobble down another 8 Cisco Classic's in order to accomplish that. And I'm having a hard time identifying one. Let alone 8. I suggest that in the time frame when Cisco Classic sported a high low PE of 25, it was also growing by 50% p/a. Cisco Mark II will be lucky to grow revenue at half that that rate for from now on. So if 22 was the low end back then for Classic, drop it back to maybe 17 or so at the bottom end for Mark II. As far as 2003 GAAP EPS, I think you're a shade on the light side, actually. I'd give 'em $0.63 now that they are a bit leaner and 'cause I'm feeling generous. Then (shudder) plug in a PE of 17 or so for a low-end-of-buy range for a pricy stock, we get closer to $11. And despite the fact that I don't like the answer based on more fundamental fundamentals, I'd be more likely to agree with you on a purchase window in that area. As far as the market now is concerned, if I really wanted to be cynical I'd rescussitate ye old PEG=1 argument and point to a revenue growth rate in the 8% range and then multiply 8 by the $0.40 or so we currently see and get a number closer to tangible book value. Which I think is low. Imagine, me saying PEG gives a low valuation. LOL. I guess it all depends on which science you swear by. HOWEVER, what is absolutely undeniable (and encouraging, to some degree) is that my buy point and yours are converging. As far as Sept '01 showing us a "bottom" in stocks, many are now trading lower, so I wouldn't rub that talisman too frequently. Yes, we have seen what can happen when confidence is suddenly removed from the marketplace in a matter of hours. We have yet to find out what happens as it is eroded slowly over a span of months. Could be much worse, and more long lasting. John

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (59462)	5/11/2002 10:37:36 AM
From: Victor Lazlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

<<Although I sold some CSCO today and yesterday, I think the "window of opportunity" for buying CSCO, is closing. In the 9-10/01 dip, I could only see the abyss; couldn't see the other side. Now, I can. So, I think, we're talking months, not years, to get a LT position at "good" prices. >> Take a look at a charts of JOSB and DLI. Then, somebody please explain to me why anyone would waste time analyzing CSCO's prosects, or trying to find the next perfect entry point in CSCO. Investing in CSCo is yesteryear. There are so many great co's out there now that are undiscovered. All you have to do is be a little more creative, and open your mind to sectors other than high tech. It's amazing to me that many of you folks who shrewdly invested in CSCo many years ago before it was well-known, are not now off elsewhere looking for the next CSCO-type performer.