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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (65049)	5/9/2002 8:54:19 PM
From: byhiselo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

<<need hard reasons>> come on max, if i could articulate those reasons, i'd go to work for a brokerage and have them pay me to keep my mouth shut lol if you're looking for something similar to last sept, can't help you since that was completely unforeseen although market would have traded to those levels anyway (witness the action over the last month) what might trigger some type of capitulation? some type of derivatives blowup...from A. Hamilton at zealllc.com: ...On an always fascinating LTCM sidenote, I continue to be utterly amazed that investors aren’t more than a little bit nervous about investing in a system where the failure of a single small hedge fund with only $3b in capital could have control of large enough leveraged positions to threaten the entire financial system. Does this seem logical? Obviously something is very wrong when such a tiny entity even matters at all in the grand scheme of things. If LTCM’s problems after the Russian Debt Default caused a scare in 1998, imagine what will happen when the first giant US bank up to its eyeballs in derivatives goes under!... <<if we have a Major capitulation BEFORE the summer, we could have a sustained summer rally>> if you define capitulation as a break of the september lows, thats exactly what i'm expecting and would buy it aggressively for a rally (i would then sell the rally and look for a retest/break of the lows, get the picture?) if you are looking for a "buy and forget it entry" in this bear market, you might be waiting a while since we won't get that until the general public absolutely hates stocks and i'm not sure when that happens (6-7K DOW, 800-1000 COMPX, 800-900 SPX ?) cheers