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Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stan_hughes who wrote (59428)	5/11/2002 9:32:36 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

stan - quiet period. I was not aware there was such one. I remember some discussions about the forms 144. Some companies file the individual 144's as soon as shares are attributed, or options exercized. Doing so, the insiders can sell or not as soon as the holding period has ended. Is there another sell restriction? July bottom: lotsa bookkeeping changes for FY2002, and lotsa cos. ending their FY2001 in June. Cos. could choose to either prepare their books and shareholders for next fiscal (business being sluggish, last opp to remove the corpses from the closets), or keep hiding some practices and take an increased risk of SEC investigation. Major analyzes of their books can only occur after annual filings, which would put us somewhere in August. If July-August bottom there is, this would most probably be at or below the neckline of the 1998 started H&S seen on many indexes. Necklines are retested from below, sometimes. But would mean trouble in any case. And the tend reversal of the Dollar is not helping. CB's on gold: they did put a lid on prices in Sep 1999 (250 to 326). I don't remember exactly the level, but we are nearing. My chart has a line set at 326. Before that, it took 3 years of strong Dollar policy to dampen the rally of gold, whic shot 416 in Dec 1997 o be taken back to 280 in Dec 1998. Some analysts envision a possible correction 280-290 before the next leg. But, IMHO, CB's have used thei tricks. Half of CB reserves appear to have been "leased", the strong Dollar policy is still on, gold already has been "demonetized" under Nixon. Reported gold hedges are still above: ranging from 330 to 360. Had a look to the CoT and found some interesting similarities with 1993. Higher commercial shorst positions on a rapidly rising open interest. This was a 330/405 move in 4 months. If history repeats, we already made 40% of that move in 2 mo., 2 mos. left to achieve the target. Current target would be 360. In 1993, this was followed by a harsh correction (translated at current level for today). So, IMHO, I have some indications for gold to also be at a top within 2 months, and that is July also. My long-term views are rapidly changing to a 2 months term, I have absolutely no scenario for the Summer. <ng>