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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: yard_man who wrote (67215)	5/14/2002 8:12:50 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

I see two potential methodologies of "denouement". The first is our balance of payments start and exceed about $40 B/per month followed by sharp decline in the dollar, and as result an interruption of the imported deflation. Another is the consumer simply getting so stretched out that consumption growth recedes and we go into a real recession, not what we had (which was only a "capex and profit recession", not two consecutive quarters of negative GDP). Both may probably occur simultaneously. Then after some "painful adjustments", the normal course of affairs will take hold, namely, excess capacity will be reigned in by market forces, pent up demand will start and accumulate and create the conditions for another growth spurt. We may have two or three recessions like that in the next 6-10 years, it takes time to bring balances back to such a large economy. (g). Zeev

To: yard_man who wrote (67215)	5/14/2002 9:39:33 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

deals for no interest until 2005 ... I guess as long as the debt can be serviced The key to these deals is that a certain percentage of people will not be ale to payoff in full when 0% interest ends. Then they can come back to you at 20%+ interest retroactively. I did a Home depot deal last year for $4K with 6 months free interest. On first months statement they put value of wavied free interest charges on bill. I paid off in full right there and then since I don't trust banks to post payments correctly in my favor with some much potential interest on the line in their favor. Banks are never going to offer free money. Someone always pays.