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To: TobagoJack who wrote (18989)	5/15/2002 5:29:49 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Jay, Watch this space here where smart advisers are at work ... Message 17469797 ... or maybe this space where somebody is also at work ... Message 17469799 ... no, no, over here, is where the real test is ... Message 17469801 ... but not before dealing with the locusts ... Message 17469803 Locusts?! If I didn't know better I would guess fudged accounting and budget short fall is next ... ... oops, looks like I didn't know better ... Message 17469805 Well, perhaps we hold back our buying power until we gain some visibility over events we know nothing about and cannot understand. Chugs, Jay

To: TobagoJack who wrote (18989)	5/15/2002 5:15:38 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, I'm a bit disingenuous with my 'kiwi hiding in a burrow from the 400 kg Gorilla and Black Belt in jujitsu tag team'. Like you, I go touring the world, under their radar, hunter-gathering, then retreating to my burrow. I can do a lot of it from the safety of cyberspace without leaving home. It's great fun. Meanwhile, here's one reason why P:E of 30 is fair enough. Well, maybe 30 is not the right level, but here is why P:E of 10 is NOT as certain as the laws of physics and the Gravitational Constant. [Switch rant filter on] Message 17473328 Another leg of the argument that the Dow level being based on P:E = 10 is as archaic as Aztecs is the relationship of gold to money. Rant to come. Watch this cyber space. Mqurice

To: TobagoJack who wrote (18989)	5/15/2002 5:52:43 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 74559

A very interesting exposition Jay. Thanks. <After all, the aggregate group of advisors got us to where we are today.> A little line, but there is a great deal of value stored in that comment; more value than a gold bar. For all the progress, creativity, technology, genius, political hissing and roaring and struggles over eons, here we are, right here, right now. Actually, looking out my window, it's very, very good! But I know from travels and communications that the rest of the world doesn't look the same as my window, especially as seen through billions of other pairs of eyes. I would add that things are not so bad that they can only get better [a common buy the dip refrain]. Things are never so bad that they can't get worse. Even though nearly everyone claims to be making improvements [no doubt including Atta and Osama] the world is full of crying children, right now. Their sadness and fear will live with them all their lives, reflecting back on we who failed to create a world of happiness. Which is not to say that things will get worse. My bet is that things will get better and better as always, with just the dips on the road to nirvana being [relatively] minor judder bars. The Holocaust was a detail of history. I know Le Pen is criticized for saying that [supposedly he said that, but the context is not reported]. But it's true. There are 6 billion people alive now and over the past 1000 years there have been something like 15 billion alive [or is it only 10 billion?] 15,000,000,000:4,000,000 is 4,000:1. Which makes the 1 a detail of history. It is only the collectivist approach to history which makes the Holocaust loom large in our minds. Mao's Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution is another detail of history. However, these details continue to have a major impact on our lives. There is also the risk that such ideas will once again be brought to bear to get the masses properly ordered in collective harmony. When authorities [and masses] see ructions and economic disruption, they are inclined to take some strong if stupid actions. The advisors, expert though they may be, will be struggling to keep things on the road to peace, light, harmony and happiness. But things can get better too. I'm going to make it better by going to play golf. A detail of history, but I did a 78 recently [best round ever]. Details, details, Mqurice