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To: orkrious who wrote (165963)	5/15/2002 10:06:31 AM
From: maceng2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I thank impristine for his remark on supply and demand. I can see how "demand" is very important. However, my real life economic experience has been in the semiconductor business. Because of the vicious economic "cycle" things are a bit different. Whats going to happen is what happened before. (imho). SUPPLY will precede DEMAND.... (1) Intel, DRAM, etc makers will migrate to 300mm. These wafers are the size of frigging dinner plates!!!. All hell will be let loose and the world will be knee deep in silicon chips. (2) All the 200mm plant will be freed up for all the slightly lower tech guys to slash each other to bits making lower tech chips cheaply. The world will be chest deep in silicon chips at that point. (3) At this point we have SUPPLY. (4) Eventually some one will be able to make a worthwhile new application using these gazzilons of chips that are been sold for practically nothing. (Only they need 10 analog and discrete chips to go with them... this is where I step in and charge a 100% mark up on them...making 20 yr old tech chips more expensive then hi tech trash <ggg>) (5) Market takes off and we have a new cycle on the go... In this case we have supply preceding demand. Happened several times over since 1975 QED.