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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (63858)	5/16/2002 11:28:38 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Well, you could be right due to the cyclical basis of this business. In order to make it to $20B sooner, it would probably have to do it on this up cycle that is just starting. If history repeats, the up cycle will end in 1 to 3 years, and then we need a 1 to 2 year "downside before another upturn. In this scenario, 2007-8 would be about right! Don

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (63858)	5/17/2002 1:28:15 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

With a mantra of $20B or bust by 2008, don't you fear that pundits will be worrying how many more cycles AMAT will have in it at that point? Is your Moore's Law time telescope capable of focusing beyond a decade? If not, what discount factor might be appropriate in valuing these sales?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (63858)	5/17/2002 1:41:39 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

OT ARMHY: Have you looked at this one? From S&P, ML research: ARM licenses semiconductor design intellectual property (IP) to the semiconductor industry. This license income accounts for 57% of revenues today. Licenses cost $5m, and upgrades $2.5m. Additional “derivative” products can be licensed and are now also a material proportion of license revenues. When licensees start shipping chips, ARM earns a 1-5% royalty. Royalty revenue currently accounts for 17% of revenues and we expect this to rise gently over the next few years. Development systems (a surprisingly high 14% of revenues) are purchased by OEMs, the customers of ARMs licensees. The high level of sales here is a promising lead indicator of future ARM growth. Consultancy, maintenance, and training make up the remainder of revenue. In our view, ARM has become an industry standard microprocessor core, and this standard status (with a huge portfolio of software, design tools, test tools, and engineering know-how) has made it the processor core of choice in almost all applications. The company has made a name for itself in the wireless market where the ARM core is in 85-90% of all handsets shipped today (for instance Texas Instruments’ DSP chip, which is in 60% of handsets, contains an ARM core). PE 42 = 10/($0.24 EPS in 2003) gross margins very stable 88-90% EPS: (in US$/ADR): .03 1998 .08 1999 .13 2000 .14 2001 .19 2002 est .24 2003 est chart: bigcharts.marketwatch.com Posts: Message 15311210 Message 17480077