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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (63901)	5/17/2002 3:22:44 PM
From: Paul V.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, It is interesting to compare the lows of July Sept '96 with (Sept '96 being the Orders low for AMAT at 778) Sept '98 Order lows at 481, and Nov 01 Orders lows at 588 with the prices at those times. Then note what the price ranges were in June-Oct. with during the year following '97, and '99. I agree with you that we seem to be following the Sept '96 bottom throught Oct. '97 highs. From the below spreadsheet are the ranges in price with Orders, shipment and BTB numbers in a linear fashion with the price range for each month. Will we top out during the Sept-Nov. this year? 1996/01 YEARS MONTH Orders Shipment Actual BTB Price Rng JAN'96 30-41.375 FEB'96 1687 1243 1.1 35.5-44.75 MAR'96 1447 1256 1.15 30.625-38.25 APR '96 1361 1354 1.01 33.9375-42.5 MAY'96 1187 1366 0.87 34.625-41.375 JU'96 1175 1354 0.87 28.875-37.25 JLY'96 992 1311 0.76 21.75-32.25 AUG'96 882 1248 0.71 23.125-27.50 SEPT'96 778 1119 0.7 22.75-29.375 OCT'96 833 1072 0.78 25.625-30.50 NOV'96 952 1062 0.9 25.875-39.75 DEC'96 1078 1069 1.01 33.875-40.50 JAN'97 1116 1034 1.08 34.6875-49.625 FEB'97 1101 1029 1.07 40.875-55.125 MARCH'97 1265 1102 1.15 43.25-54.125 APR'97 1386 1261 1.1 44.875-55 MAY'97 1421 1299 1.09 53.50-72 JU'97 1487 1375 1.07 57.5625-74.625 JLY'97 1659 1476 1.12 70.625-93.25 AUG'97 1400.5 1536 1.1 88.25-108.375 SEP'97 1468.5 1672 1.06 90.875-102.50 OCT'97 split 1518 1793 1.02 105.9375-58.5(split) NOV'97 1595.1 1598 1 28.75-40.125 DEC'97 1589 1559 0.99 25.50-35.9375 JAN'98 1515.7 1458 0.93 26.4375-33.25 FEB'98 1382.5 1369 0.9 33.25-38.125 MAR'98 1240.1 1370 0.82 31.8125-36.75 APR'98 1136.9 1416 0.78 33.875-39.50 MAY'98 1107.1 1361 0.81 31.625-39.6094 JU'98 932.7 1265.5 0.74 26-32.50 Jly'98 717.6 1112.1 0.65 27.50-34.50 AUG'98 571.6 1011.8 0.57 24.50-37.375 SEP'98 481.3 845.7 0.57 22.4375-27.75 OCT'98 638 852.3 0.75 21.5625-36.625 NOV'98 767.2 913.6 0.84 32.1875-43 DEC'98 883.4 920.9 0.96 37.3125-47 JAN'99 996.7 890 1.12 42.875-64.0625 FEB'99 1028.8 845 1.22 55.3125-71.625 MAR'99 1256.9 943.5 1.33 54.50-67.0625 APR'99 1405.1 1099.1 1.28 48.4375-68.875 MAY'99 1514.2 1216.7 1.24 50.75-67.25 JUNE'99 1560.5 1288.3 1.21 53.50-75 JLY'99 1530.9 1375.2 1.11 68.0625-79.9375 AUG'99 1565.1 1440.7 1.09 62.25-79.25 SEP'99 1502.2 1406.5 1.07 71.25-84.9375 OCT'99 1592 1465 1.09 73.5625-90.1875 NOV'99 1694.5 1528.5 1.11 87.50-113.25 DEC'99 1907.9 1597.9 1.19 98.125-129 JAN'00 2227.3 1603.5 1.39 111-146.625 FEB'00 2301.5 1564.3 1.44 133.25-189.75 MAR'00 2546.5 1744.9 1.46 196.9375-163 Presplit today APR.'00 2715.7 1991.4 1.36 156-230/PRS (115-78/PS) MAY'00 2778.3 2157.7 1.29 68.8125-104.75 JUNE'00 2858.8 2259.6 1.27 85.50-98.50 JULY'00 2901.5 2373 1.22 72-94.50 AUG'00 2984.1 2431 1.23 64.75-87.625 SEP'00 2887.6 2475.9 1.17 58.2344-88.875 OCT. 00 29930 2573.8 1.16 40.50-60.9375 NOV. 00 2707.3 2422.3 1.12 38.50-52.75 Dec. 00 2372.3 2389.5 0.99 34.125-51.25 JAN.01. 01 1854.2 2308.4 0.8 38-53.9375 FEB'01 1610.9 2279.3 0.71 41-51.625 MAR'01 1197.3 2020.2 0.59 39.0625-52.4062 APR.'01 721.3 1654.8 0.44 36.5625-59.10 MAY'01 723.4 1461.8 0.49 48.35-58.49 JUNE'01 730.7 1359.8 0.54 45.80-56.48 Jly'01 768.9 1191.7 0.65 39.87-50.45 AUG'01 714.6 1143.7 0.62 41.80-50.25 SEP'01 614 960.7 0.64 27.05-44.45 OCT. 01 644.4 895.5 0.72 26.59-38 NOV. 01 588.9 817.2 0.72 33.72-43.10 Dec. 01 628.5 819.3 0.77 38.82-46.58 Jan 02 645.2 799.9 0.81 39-48 FEB'02 737.2 818 0.9 41.43-48.65 MAR'02 835.9 797.6 1.05 44.50-56.27 APR.'02 982 821.5 1.2 23.37-27.855 MAY'01 0.87 24.17-27.13