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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LTK007 who wrote (68864)	5/19/2002 8:47:10 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

Info Tech Cyclical Recovery: I agree that the cyclical recovery in Tech will be much weaker than the late 90s. As the sector recovers, there will be a moderating of longer term expectations that will compress P/E ratios. Right now, I'm starting to analyze this past week's data and there are some interesting developments re Info Tech/Nasdaq. On the positive side, 4-Year Info Tech Business Expectations (1.5 to 4wk lead) rose to a peak this past week (and could go higher still). On the negative side, Long-term Nasdaq Market sentiment is dropping rather precipitously. It seems to lead by 1.5 to 3 months, but hasn't been fully validated. Also, the data flow is quite low. I'll need to decide how much weight to give to each, and how other indicators stack up. It seems the short term outlook (i.e. next 1-2wks) is for higher Nasdaq prices, but beyond that there is cause for pessimism, it seems.